伊斯兰教信徒2060年前将挑战基督教徒人数

The Pew Research Center says Muslims are soon to rival Christians as the largest religious group worldwide, with higher birth rates among Muslim families predicted to increase the Muslim population to a number ties with Christians by 2060.

Pew said in a study released Wednesday that by 2060 Muslims will make up about 31 percent of the world population, with about 3 billion people, while Christians will make up about 32 percent, or 3.1 billion people.

A Pew study two years ago found that Islam is the world's fastest growing religion and could overtake Christianity by the end of this century. The analysis is based on 2,500 census, survey and population registers from around the world.

Pew experts say they allowed for conversion rates, but maintain that birth and death rates will have a far larger impact on religious populations.

Other religious groups such as Hindus and Jews are expected to grow to larger total numbers by 2060, but not at pace with total population growth. And the number of people who profess no religion is expected to shrink, given current birth rates.

美国皮尤研究中心说，穆斯林人口很快将赶上全球信众最多的基督教徒。预计，穆斯林家庭较高的出生率将使穆斯林人口在2060年前增加到与基督徒相同的人数。

皮尤中心星期三发表的一项研究中表示，到2060年，穆斯林将占世界人口的31％，约有30亿人，而基督徒将占32％，即31亿人。

两年前皮尤中心的研究发现，伊斯兰教是世界上信众人数增长最快的宗教，到本世纪末可以超越基督教。这一分析基于来自世界各地的2,500个人口普查记录。

皮尤中心的专家说，这个数字也包括阪依人数，但表示，出生和死亡率对宗教人口的影响将会更大。

信仰其他宗教的人，如印度教徒和犹太人，预计到2060年总数将会增长，但不能随着人口总量的增长而增长。从目前的出生率看，无宗教信仰的人预计会减少。