Education the next bubble to burst

Many people are now wondering whether the education industry will also start to experience a downfall as a result of the global financial crisis, (GFC).

Initially what began with the US sub-prime mortgage crisis has now transmogrified into something far more devastating.

Last week we saw the bankruptcy of the Icelandic nation and the resignation of their government.

Almost weekly new reports are being broadcast of company bankruptcies, staff cuts, bank closures, negative trade statistics and billionaires who decide to take their own lives.

One estimate here in China placed the possible number of jobless resulting from the present mess to be around 20 million.

Unlike the commodity markets in oil and minerals or the manufacturing industry dealing with clothing and automobiles there was always one industry that appeared a safe haven for employees and company directors during a recession – that of education.

I remember quite specifically a time when my old private language school boss commented that education, particularly here in China, was like a tree that just keeps on growing.

Well that metaphor is now being put to the test and perhaps it won't be for another half a year or so before we begin to see the impact of the GFC on the education industry.

Contacts in Australian institutions are telling me application numbers from China are still strong though yesterday I had a phone call from my brother who works in Japan and his impression was far more pessimistic.

Whether conditions in China for those who are able to study abroad are less problematic or whether the situation in Japan is more critical and constrained is hard to decipher.

Both countries value highly the role of education and traditionally families from both nations put away money towards their children's education.

One aspect not mentioned so far is how influential will the role of new technologies be on reducing costs for learning?

Many insiders have been speculating as to the role of new web-enabled mobile devices and whether such technology will serve to bring down the price of learning.

Already we are seeing a huge growth in online learning and an acceptance from employers for qualifications obtained online. Such education delivery saves costs and makes competition between schools and colleges, both at home and abroad, more vibrant.

Looking further afield, perhaps some time in the not so distant future, more students will be using their mp4's and Ipod's and Iphones to download lessons, as is now seen with foreigners trying to learn Chinese who use "Chinese Pod" a company based out in Shanghai, paying a fraction of the cost of traditional 'in classroom' lessons.

On the move, more engaging and customized for the consumer, the future of education is continually evolving.

Place this alongside the current climate where governments, companies and families are cutting back on spending and maybe we will see more affordability in the future for learning with profits less easy to come by for past education giants who appeared to have a monopoly in certain markets.

And for people like myself, it may mean more rigorous demands being placed on teachers to be conversant in the latest technologies so as to cater for the new 21st century student.

Transmogrified: Altered, transformed, or mutated into a form that is grotesque or amusing.

Metaphor: The use of a word or phrase to refer to something that it isn't, invoking a direct similarity between the word or phrase used and the thing described, and without the words "like" or "as".