时事资讯:美国股市及原油价格跟随中国股市走低

【英文原文】

Stocks, OIL FOLLOW CHINA'S DROP

U.S. investors shied from risk on the final trading day of the month, unloading stocks and commodities following a big stock-market selloff in China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 47.92 points, or 0.5%, to 9496.28, marking a second straight decline. Alcoa, Caterpillar and Boeing fell more than 3%. United Technologies declined 0.5%. Walt Disney slid 3% after it said it would acquire Marvel Entertainment for about $4 billion. Marvel soared 25%.

Despite those losses, stocks finished August ahead of where they started. For the month, the Dow industrials gained 3.5%, the average's best performance for August since 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 19.71 points, or 1%, to 2009.06. The SP 500 sank 8.30 points, or 0.8%, to 1020.63. All its sectors fell, led by a decline of 1.9% in its energy sector.

The declines were sparked by an overnight drop in China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, which fell 6.7% to 2667.75, its lowest finish since May. It has given back nearly a quarter of its value since it peaked Aug 4.

Typically, China's markets take their cue from trading in the U.S., according to a note earlier this month from analysts at J.P. Morgan. But Monday marked the second Monday in three weeks that a sharp drop in Shanghai was followed by a decline in New York.

'The market seems to be keying off the Shanghai Composite lately even though it didn't pay a lot of attention to it during the run up,' said Kevin Kruszenski, director of equity trading for KeyBanc Capital Markets. 'It shows people are looking for any reason to sell this market on a belief it's come too far, too fast.'

The latest round of China jitters comes at a time when many traders think that speculation had pushed oil's price ahead of what might be justified by supply and demand. Hopes in China's ability to provide new demand for oil to run factories, an expanding fleet of personal cars, and other machinery are fading.

'The energy markets have probably become the leading market for pricing in [an economic] recovery in China,' said energy analyst John Kilduff, of MF Global. 'Now it looks like we're likely to consolidate for awhile.'

Crude-oil futures slid $2.78 to settle at $69.96 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude still gained 0.7% in August.

Monday's sock pullback struck at a time when many investors in the U.S. were already primed to sell following a blistering summer run, with many traders now looking for a traditional 10% correction to shake the speculative excesses out of the market.

In particular, September has historically been a difficult month for the market, with the Dow averaging a 1.1% decline for the month dating back to 1900. That's the only month for which it has a negative performance over that timeframe, according to Ned Davis Research.

More broadly, the fall is known as a fraught time for traders because the U.S. crashes of 1929 and 1987 both happened in October. Last year's historic meltdown began in mid-September and led to an initial round of bear-market lows in October before a brief rally that eventually gave way to an even deeper pullback.

While no one is expecting a repeat of such calamity this year, many traders are on the defensive.

'I doubt if we get a big selloff before the end of the week,' when key jobs data are due, said Bob Bright, partner at the proprietary trading firm Bright Trading in Chicago. 'But beyond that, who knows? Most of my traders are just waiting for when everyone gets back from vacation after Labor Day to see what happens.'

While Mr. Bright said a correction is clearly possible in September, he's even more worried about weakness in the following month, after many funds and companies have closed out their fiscal years. As a result he's been selling bullish October call options on stocks he owns even more aggressively than September contracts.

Jason Trennert, managing partner at Strategas Research Partners in New York, said the consensus on Wall Street is that a market correction from the summer's highs is 'inevitable.' However, Mr. Trennert said that a few factors may help September 2009 buck the usual reputation of the ninth month as a rough patch for stocks.

He said many fund managers who sat out the summer rally may be apt to chase the SP's year-to-date gains and that a continued deluge of stimulus spending may bolster key economic data and corporate profits. According to Strategas, less than 20% of the $787 billion stimulus package passed in February has been spent, with between $3 billion and $4 billion in new money being spent every week.

The dollar weakened against the euro and yen, which rose after a historic electoral victory by the upstart Democratic Party of Japan. Treasury prices were higher.