【英文原文】
Factory-Sector Gains Signal Global Recovery
The U.S., Asia and Europe made gains in manufacturing this summer, according to data released Tuesday that signal the global economy may grow faster for the remainder of the year than once expected.
In the U.S., the manufacturing sector grew for the first time since January 2008; the key gauge of this, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, rose to 52.9 from 48.9 the previous month, driven by improvements in new orders and production. Levels above 50 indicate growth. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers' index for China swung into expansionary territory in March -- well before other nations -- and has stayed there ever since, but Tuesday's reading of 54.0 for August show activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year. And Japanese industrial output rose 1.9% in July, beating expectations.
The positive signs come on the heels of another report Tuesday showing similar strength in Europe. Though still contracting, the euro-zone manufacturing purchasing manager index rose to 48.2 in August from 46.3 in July, a 14-month high. The improvement came on the back of gains in Germany and France, but Spain and Italy posted declines. The U.K. showed unexpected weakness, as the nation's manufacturing sector shifted into contractionary territory. August's reading came in at 49.7 from 50.2 a month earlier.
Economists and public policy officials credit massive global stimulus efforts with helping lead the march out of the deep recession. Now, they say, private demand must replace the boost to the global economy from the government's monetary and fiscal expansion.
Another big question haunting the global economy now is whether inflation will unexpectedly climb and push the world again into recession, said Mr. Suttle. Others factors that could affect both the strength and length of global growth are unemployment and consumers' reticence to spend.
Still, the August improvement in the U.S. is notable because many of the industries that improved aren't linked to automotive production. That signals an improvement in demand apart from the Cash for Clunkers program, which let people trade vehicles in for a credit toward more fuel-efficient models, helping boost consumer spending and manufacturing.
International Rectifier Corp., which manufactures power semiconductors, said demand and growth were particularly strong in China and Taiwan and the company noted 'encouraging signs of stabilization' in North America, in its earnings call last week. Europe and Japan were still hindered by challenges in the industrial automotive sector.
New orders were a driving force behind the manufacturing gains in the U.S., rising almost 10 percentage points to 64.9. Production and supplier deliveries, which tend to be tied to improvements in new orders, also rose.
In the midst of all the good news, hiring was still a weak spot in the U.S. manufacturing report. The index shows that employment was still contracting and some companies noted in their comments that layoffs were still ahead. Separate indicators released Tuesday showed mixed signs for the construction industry. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose to 97.6 in July from 94.6 in June. But construction spending fell 0.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $958 billion compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said.
With hiring still struggling and housing working toward stabilization, healthier foreign economies could buoy the U.S. recovery. The manufacturing report's exports index climbed five percentage points to 55.5 in August.
China has pulled out of the global slump faster and more decisively than any other major economy, thanks to its enormous stimulus program. Now it grapples with a new set of worries that other economies will also have to face when they manage a return to growth. Having shown that the government can force through a short-term recovery, Chinese policymakers now face the challenge of sustaining an expansion over the longer term even while withdrawing official support.
The continued strength of the purchasing managers' index is a sign that China's economy still has momentum, after its gross domestic product surged an annualized 14.9% in the second quarter, according to a central bank estimate. Chinese demand has boosted machinery exports from Germany and Korea, and has been a particular boon to commodity producers like Brazil and Australia.
'With considerable economic policy stimulus in train around the world, the global economy is resuming growth,' Australia's central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, said in a statement Tuesday. 'The major economies appear to be approaching a turning point,' he said, crediting 'very strong' growth in China for aiding an expansion throughout Asia. The large economies of India and Indonesia have maintained relatively steady growth this year, but even export-dependent Hong Kong and Singapore rebounded in the second quarter.
China's growth came close to a standstill in the fourth quarter of 2008, but the manufacturing sector has come well back from those depths. Activity has been boosted by a nearly unprecedented wave of lending from state banks coupled with a rapid public-investment program. A government survey of industrial firms last December found 15% had wholly or partially stopped producing; the latest official update, which looked at 170,000 factories, found that proportion had shrunk to 7.2% in June.
Government spending has led the way this year, but there are signs corporate investment is picking up as well. BOE Technology Group Co. and a consortium of other Chinese state-owned enterprises said last week they will spend $4.1 billion to build a major new liquid-crystal-display factory in Beijing. Yet investments from non-state companies have lagged, and the government admits the recovery won't be on solid ground until private-sector spending takes over the lead.
Confidence remains fragile, and some of the initial euphoria over the stimulus has already evaporated. Despite continued reassurances from the government, the Shanghai stock market declined 23% in August as investors fretted over a slowdown in the pace of bank lending. Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday again reiterated, in a meeting with World Bank President Robert Zoellick, that the government's economic policies won't change direction. 'Beijing still faces the difficult task of managing liquidity conditions to avoid a bubble -- or a bust,' said Brian Jackson, an economist for Royal Bank of Canada.
The biggest boost from the government's massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is probably over: most economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to an annualized pace of 9% to 10% in the second half of this year. Chinese firms appear to have started restocking inventories earlier than companies elsewhere in the world, economists say. So while inventory building will likely help growth in the U.S. and Europe in the rest of 2009, it's unlikely to do much more to boost China's figures.
Still, China's stimulus now seems to be more than strong enough to meet the official target of an 8% expansion for 2009. Officials are still publicly cautious about the world economy, with exports still down 22% from last year, and have repeatedly said the policy to support growth hasn't changed. But government statements in recent weeks have focused more on longer-term issues like funding for small businesses and controlling excess capacity. That's where economists are looking for new measures that would help keep the recovery going into 2010.
GMAT写作常见的七种经典错误
10天突围GMAT写作高分的备考方法
GMAT写作备考技巧:模板运用指导
GMAT写作Argument的提升要点分析
GMAT写作如何不偏题不跑题?
GMAT写作需要掌握哪些技巧?
详解GMAT写作中的让步式攻击体系
短时突击GMAT写作5.5分的经验分享
GMAT Argument 写作模板(3)
GMAT写作评分标准详细分析
GMAT写作满分标准解读
GMAT Argument 写作模板(4)
深入分析提高GMAT写作水平的方法
GMAT写作6分模板分享
GMAT写作水平的提高方法和实用技巧
浅析类比在GMAT Argument写作中的运用
一个月备考GMAT写作的技巧及建议
如何提高表达能力和逻辑思维能力?
GMAT Argument 写作模板(5)
GMAT写作语言提升方法介绍
盘点GMAT写作易犯的七种错误
GMAT写作的备考技巧及思路指导
GMAT写作范文欣赏:谈收入
速度提高GMAT写作内功的方法指导
GMAT Argument 写作模板(6)
一篇GMAT高分作文是如何完成的?
从容应对GMAT写作题目的备考方法
GMAT写作精品模板推荐(三)
GMAT写作的评分标准及写作步骤
巧用作文记忆法提升GMAT写作
不限 |
英语教案 |
英语课件 |
英语试题 |
不限 |
不限 |
上册 |
下册 |
不限 |