gre argument 提纲

　　gre argument 提纲

　　1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Natures Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

　　Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsvilles schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness for life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

　　A、跑鞋和运动服装卖得好并不一定说明P地区的居民关注健康生活，可能因为这样的商店比较少，因此即使是绝对数字不大的居民购买也会形成卖得好的情况。同样，健康俱乐部体重练习和厌氧练习班满员也不能说明，因为同样可能因为这样的俱乐部很少。

　　B、即使跑鞋、运动服装卖得好，健康俱乐部满员，是因为P地区的居民关注健康生活，也不一定适合在P地区开设Natures Way的商店。因为正如作者所说的，他是根据以往在其他地区的经验得出的，而其他地方成功的做法在P地区并不一定同样取得成功。因为P地区的居民的喜好可能有所不同。

　　C、另外，学生被要求参加fitness for life项目，并不一定他们就开始关注健康生活了;即使他们开始关注，也不一定会喜欢Natures Way的健康食品以及相关产品。每个人都有自己独特的喜好。

　　2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

　　Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the communitys yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting.

　　A、B地区提出了这样的要求，但是B地区的居民是否真正严格执行了这个要求，作者并没有提及。如果该地区居民并没有严格按照该规则执行，则作者之后的推测就完全站不住脚了。

　　B、即使B地区的居民严格执行了该规则，也不一定是促成B地区平均价值增长3倍原因。因为造成平均价值增长的原因还有很多，比如通货膨胀，购买需求增长等。

　　C、即使B地区平均价值增长3倍是由于该规则，那也是7年前到现在的情况，并不能够保证今后还能继续增长下去。人们对房屋的评判标准是会随着时间改变的，可能今后人们更加关注于房屋的结构、房屋的地理位置以及周围环境等。

　　D、即使还能够继续增长下去，那也是B地区，D地区即使采用了相同的措施也不一定能够获得同样的成功，因为两个地区毕竟有很多的不同，例如D地区的居民可能不太喜欢这样的要求，该地区的居民可能更加关注于房屋的物理结构以及价格等。

　　3.The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

　　In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work.

　　A、去大公司的人数下降并不一定说明毕业生不想去大公司，可能是由于应届毕业生的总人数下降了。

　　B、调查的范围太小了，仅仅调查了在顶尖法律学校的一年级学生，这样的样本并不能够代表整个法律学校的学生，另外，样本选择的随机性是否得到保证作者也没有给出相应的证明。

　　C、作者错误地假设了只要大公司向毕业生提供更多的薪水，一个更短的工作时间，就能够让学生感受到更好的工作满足感，工作满足感还和其他很多因素有关，例如办公地点的环境，办公地点里员工家庭住址的距离等。

　　4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

　　Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitchs $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams.

　　A、F公司有25名员工，很多员工是兼职，而A公司有40名员工，这并不能说明A公司要比F公司好。F公司的25名员工，虽然其中很多是兼职，但是他们可能工作的经历更长，经验更丰富，工作效率更高。

　　B、两家公司的平均房屋销售价并不一定存在可比性，因为两家公司可能卖的房屋的类型不一样，可能A公司卖中、大型商品房，而F公司卖小型商品房，这样A公司的平均价格自然要比F公司高。

　　C、A公司卖房子比F公司快，并不一定说明A公司的销售能力就要比F公司好，因为两间房子并不是一样的，可能一间房子好一些，而另一间相对要差一些，地理位置因素，房屋结构，新旧等。

　　D、即使说明A公司的销售能力比F公司好，那也是十年前的F公司和去年的A公司，都不能够代表现在的两家公司。因为随着时间变化，两家公司都可能会产生很大的变化。即使现在A公司仍然要比F公司的销售能力好，那也只能说明销售作者的那两套房子上的能力不同，并不一定能够代表两家公司其他方面的销售能力。

　　5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

　　Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis.

　　A、作者的所有推理都是建立在一开始的假设上的，如果该假设不成立，则作者其他所有推理都将不成立，而在未来风湿病患者增长40 million到60 million作者并没有给出可以让人信服的证据，因此该假设很可能不成立。

　　B、即使该假设成立，B公司也不一定能够抓到高利润。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本。如果B公司开发以及生产X药的成本很高，那么即使销售不错，也可能不盈利，甚至亏本。

　　C、对于P公司的X药，临床研究的样本数太少，只有10个病人，而且这10个病人都是严重的风湿病，以此该样本并不能够代表所有的风湿病患者。

　　D、即使能够代表所有的风湿病患者，也存在着利润问题，高成本的话就不一定能够产生利润了。

　　6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

　　A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroes jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is Jazz Nightly, which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money.

　　A、首先，该全国范围的调查样本选取是否足够随机，如果不随机，则调查结果就不能够得出人均花费$1,000在爵士音乐娱乐上的结论。

　　B、即使该调查足够随机，那也是全国范围的调查结论，对于M地区并不一定成立。M地区的居民花费在爵士音乐娱乐上的钱不足$1,000。正如作者所说，M地区的居民喜欢Jazz Nightly的广播节目，因此该地区的居民可能更喜欢收听免费的广播，而不是去俱乐部等地方进行消费。

　　C、即使M地区的居民也年均花费$1,000在爵士娱乐上，也不一定会去M地区的C Note爵士音乐俱乐部。目前的俱乐部虽然远，但并不代表人们不去。可能该俱乐部环境比较好，爵士音乐纯正，人们喜欢去那里。

　　D、即使人们去C Note，也不一定能够保证C Note能赚钱。利润等于收入减去成本，而作者忽视了成本中一个很重要且很大的成本品牌成本。C Note创立之初，一定会需要大笔的资金进行品牌宣传。

　　E、另外，有名的爵士艺人住在M地区，并不代表他们会在M地区进行表演。100,000参加M地区的爵士欢庆，并不能够说明爵士乐在M地区很受欢迎，人们去那里可能是其他原因，例如追星。即使说明人们喜欢爵士乐，那也是去年夏天了，并不表示今后也是如此。

　　7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

　　In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved.

　　A、作者并没有给出呼吸疾病患者的基数。如果基数比较小，那么即使增加少量的人，也会导致增长的比值很大。也是呼吸疾病患者确实大量增加了，也不一定说明是空气污染造成的。常识告诉我们，气候变化也可能造成呼吸疾病。

　　B、即使是由于空气污染造成的，也并不一定是由于C地区的工厂增加导致的。空气污染恶化可能和C地区的气候变化有关，例如季风的变化，季风变化后可能就带不走C地区工厂排放的废气，造成C地区的废气积累。另外，C地区的工厂数增加也存在着基数问题。

　　C、即使是因为C地区的工厂数增加了，导致了C地区的空气污染恶化，也并非是由于FB不采取环境保护的缘故。工厂数增加可能是由于C地区经济快速发展。国家的宏观调控对C地区也有影响。

　　D、即使是由于FB不采取环境保护，作者也错误地假设了只要AG上台，就能够解决C地区的环境问题。环境问题牵扯到很多因素，AG虽然是GEC的成员，也并不代表AG就有能力解决这诸多因素。另外，如果是国家宏观调控的话，AG显然还是没有办法解决。

　　8.The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.

　　Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country.

　　A、首先，作者简单地认为利润高是并购的充分条件。两家公司要能够实现成功并购，需要考虑两家公司的企业文化是否能够很好地融合，如果不能够的话，一加一可能会小于二，甚至小于一。还有收购的费用是否合理等。

　　B、MF去年的利润增长了，并不代表MF今年以及今后仍然能够保持增长。人们的口味会随着时间有所改变，今后人们可能就不喜欢DS食品的味道了，或者人们开始更看重食品的健康程度而非口味，而DS的食品健康性可能不尽如人意。

　　C、正如作者所说，O公司对14至25岁人群比较感兴趣，但作者并未说明MF的DS适合该人群。即使DS适合该人群，也正如作者在文中所提到的，DS只是在一个小地区获得了成功，并不代表可以在全国获得成功。

　　9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

　　Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors.

　　A、O大学的教授开始给学生更高的分数，并不一定是因为学生评价教授的机制的存在。可能是O大学的学生平均来说都要比以前学习刻苦了，或者说学习的课目较之15年前要简单了。

　　B、即使学生获得了更高的分数，是因为O大学的教授怕学生通过该机制对他进行不利的评价，从而使得潜在的雇佣者质疑这样的分数，也不一定能够解释O大学的毕业生找工作没有A大学毕业生成功的现象。找工作困难和其他很多因素都有关，例如专业对不对口，学生本身的寻求条件高低等。

　　C、即使是因为这个原因导致了O大学的毕业生找工作更困难，O大学也不应该断然停止一项维持了15年的机制。事物都有两面性，作者忽视了该机制所带来的正面效应，例如让教授对自己教授的课程更加负责了等等。

　　10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

　　The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers.

　　A、牛奶价格从$1.50找到超过$3.00每加仑，并不能够说明奶农在其中赚取了更多的利润。可能因为生产牛奶的成本增加了，也可能是因为通货膨胀导致价格上涨。

　　B、牧场数量增加了25%，但并不意味着牛奶产量也增加了，很可能牧场数量增加了而牛奶产量却下降了。

　　C、作者没有给出充分的理由来说明用政府干预经济的方法是必须的。经济常识告诉我们，市场具有自我调节能力，政府可能可以通过市场的手段来解决牛奶供应的问题。

　　11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.

　　Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Eggs landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.

　　A、提高垃圾收集费用并不一定能够促进可回收材料使用的增加，如果提高的费用小于人们改用可回收材料所需要支付的费用，显然很多人由于经济利益的驱使还是会选择继续使用不可回收材料的。

　　B、作者没有交待调查的基数，如果基数很小的话，例如只有10个人，那么即使有90%的人支持，由于样本数量过小，也不能够说明整体的情况。

　　C、即使是全部居民都有提高可回收材料的意愿，但是否能够落实到实际行动中作者也没有给予充分说明。即使能够落实到实际行动中，也不一定能够延长垃圾填埋坑的使用期限。因为即使人们希望提高可回收垃圾的数量，但是如果整个城市垃圾的产生速度更快，不可回收垃圾的产生速度更快，那么该垃圾填埋处仍然不能够得到延期。

　　12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

　　During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.

　　A、A公司比P公司多出现30%的工作时事故并不一定是由A公司员工的疲劳所致，A公司和P公司的工作性质可能不同，从而可能导致A公司的工作的危险性要高于P公司。

　　B、即使该情况是由于A公司的员工疲劳所致，缩短员工一个小时的工作时间也不一定能够保证员工充足的睡眠，进而减缓员工的疲劳。因为员工可能会利用多出来的一个小时做其他的事情。

　　C、即使缩短一个小时能够减少员工的疲劳，也不一定能够提高生产率。生产率不但和员工的身体状况有关，还和员工的技术熟练程度有关，也和工厂的机器设备是否先进，是否稳定有关。

　　13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.

　　We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published childrens book Squirrel Power, by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Woods last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in Squirrel Power will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs.

　　A、PW的前三本书买得好并不能够保证他的第四本书SP也能够买得好。

　　B、即使第四本书SP也能够卖得好，也不代表根据该书改编的游戏能够畅销，两者属于不同类型的产品，拥有不同的属性和用户群，电影热卖也不能说明问题，因为电影和游戏仍然属于不同的产品，拥有不同的用户群。

　　C、即使该游戏能够热卖，该游戏公司也未必能够赚到钱。正如作者所说，购买该版权将花费大量资金，而且作者并没有说明开发该游戏将要花费的资金。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本，如果该游戏厂商成本很大的话，即使游戏热卖，也未必能够实现盈利，甚至可能亏损。

　　14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

　　There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring.

　　A、首先，怀疑该全国性调查样本的随机性是否足够。如果该样本随机性不够，则不能够代表整个消费者人群，因而无法支持作者的观点。即使该全国性调查满足样本随机性，那也是全国范围的，对于该镇并不一定成立。例如该镇可能农业比较发达，蔬菜比较新鲜，那么消费者就不会抱怨蔬菜不够新鲜。

　　B、即使该调查的结果符合该镇的具体情况，人们对蔬菜的新鲜度不满意，并不能够说明人们就会喜欢种植他们自己的蔬菜，这里面不存在必然联系。因为种植蔬菜可能比较繁琐，或者有些人没有终止场所，该地区气候不适宜等。

　　C、GG杂志卖完不能够说明很多人喜欢种植自己的蔬菜，可能该杂志发行量本来就很小，或者说该杂志内还有其他的娱乐类信息吸引读者，或者该杂志进行了有奖促销等等。

　　D、即使该镇居民越来越热衷于种植自己的蔬菜，也不一定会给GTGC公司带来更多的利润，经济学常识告诉我们，利润等于销售总额减去成本。如果GTGC公司运营种子销售成本很高，例如种子本身成本，以及GTGC公司的宣传广告等品牌创造成本等，那么GTGC不但可能不会盈利，甚至有可能会亏本。另外，居民可能只喜欢种植少数的几种菜，那么增加种子多样性不会提高该公司种子的销售量。

　　15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

　　Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the companys sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

　　A、首先怀疑该调查样本的数量以及样本选择的随机性。如果该样本基数很小，那么即使有80%的人，那么其绝对数也是很小的;样本选择的随机性不够，就不能够代表整个消费者人群。另外，该调查是否采用了暗示性问题?

　　B、ODI公司的视频含有较多的脂肪和胆固醇，但并不意味着该公司的食品就卖得不好。食品的销售不但和它的营养有关，还和食品的口感、包装有关。消费者可能会因为该食品口感好而选择继续购买。

　　C、作者并没有说明ODI公司是否也在销售低脂肪和胆固醇的食品。可能ODI公司也正在着力推广该类健康食品，因此ODI公司的销售额不一定会下降。

　　16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

　　Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucrias public health program treats far more people than our states program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling.

　　A、L地区能够花费能多的钱在教育上以及医疗项目能够是能多人受益，并不一定是由于L地区的彩票。可能L地区本身的经济就比较发达，政府在教育和医疗上的拨款数额比I地区大，还可能是L地区政府的教育和医疗的重视度比较高。即使L地区在教育和医疗上的进步是由于彩票，也是过去两年的情况，并不能够保证今后还能继续发展下去。

　　B、即使L地区能够继续这样发展下去，I地区采用同样的方法后，也不一定能够成功。因为两个地区存在着很多不同，例如I地区的居民不太喜欢购买彩票，或者说I地区的居民收入不太高，他们不太会在彩票上投入资金。另外，I地区实行彩票后，可能会带来一些负面影响，例如有些居民可能会沉溺于彩票当中，从而耽误了正常的工作和生活。

　　C、文中的调查是否具有说服力值得商榷，作者并没有交待该调查的样本基数以及样本是否随机化。如果样本基数不够或者样本选择缺乏随机性，则该调查不具有说服力。另外，该调查只在Capital City进行，并不能够代表I地区。即使该调查具有说服力，I地区平均人均花费$50在赌博上，I地区的居民也未必会将这些钱用于购买彩票。赌博和彩票属于两个不同的概念。

　　17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

　　Walnut Groves town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABCs fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last years town survey agreed that they were satisfied with EZs performance.

　　A、ABC每周收集一次垃圾，EZ每周收集两次，这并不表明ABC就要比EZ差。ABC虽然频数小，可是他们收集的效果可能要好，例如收集得更干净，服务态度更好;而EZ虽然每周收集两次，但是他们可能收集地不太干净。另外，一周收集两次是否对于WG镇是需要的，这点作者也没有说清楚。

　　B、EZ订购了额外的卡车，但作者并没有说明ABC现在的计划，可能ABC也在订购额外的卡车。即使ABC不订购额外的卡车，但是ABC现有的20辆卡车可能比较新，运载能力比EZ的卡车强。

　　C、怀疑调查样本的基数以及选择的随机性。如果这两个不能够满足的话，该调查就不具有说服力。另外，调查者是否说了真话?如果该调查采用了有利益的方式，则被调查者很可能因为最求利益而说假话。即使该调查具备上面说的条件，具有说服力，该调查也只能反映1年前的情况，并不能够代表现在的情况。

　　18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

　　In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

　　A、首先，大部分驾驶员超速以及事故率下降很小，并不能够表明P郡的这项措施失败了。因为超速可能是由于该限速规则刚刚推出，或者P郡政府对该项新规则宣传力度不够，驾驶员对此并不了解。事故率下降很小，可能是由于P郡正处于多雨雪的季节，道路状况比较差，容易引发交通事故。

　　B、B郡去年交通事故减少25%，作者并没有给出交通事故的基数。如果该基数很小，那么减少25%并不能够说明B郡的交通变得安全了，例如如果基数只有4，那么减少一起事故就减少了25%。作者没有说明B郡的该项措施是成功的。即使25%说明了B郡的交通确实变得比原来安全了，也未必是由于B郡的道路车道变宽了和路面重铺了。可能是由于B郡去年的气候变化了，例如降水或降雪的天数减少。

　　C、即使B郡的交通变安全是因为B郡采取的这些措施，P郡效仿后也未必能够起到同样的效果。因为两个郡的交通状况不尽相同。例如P郡的交通路线要比B郡拥有更多的易发生交通事故的危险路段，P郡的气候要比B郡多雨雪等。

　　19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.

　　One year ago, tickets for Double Rices concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the bands increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the bands success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale.

　　A、DR在全国的演唱会门票平均需要至少24小时销售完，并不意味着DR在M地区是如此。在M地区，DR可能拥有比其他地区更多的歌迷或者追溯着，或者，DR的门票可能比较昂贵，而M地区的居民普遍比较富裕，能够支付得起。可能去年在M地区的销售速度比12分钟还要短。

　　B、即使DR在M地区门票销售也是如此，那也只是一年前的了，正如作者所说，现在DR在14至25岁的人群那种已经掀起了一股热潮，因此在M地区12分钟售完门票未必就和广告商有关。即使广告商不宣传，DR的追随者也会踊跃购买门票。作者并没有说明其中的联系。

　　C、即使DR门票在12分钟内售完和AL公司的广告活动有关，那也仅是在M地区，在其他地区就未必能够成功，不一定适合在全国范围内推广。AL公司可能对M地区居民的喜好比较了解，而AL公司未必对其他地区的居民的喜好有所了解。

　　20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

　　The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the islands six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseaus town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

　　A、作者并没有交待当前这六家公司日出租数，如果该数本来就小于30，那么这则规定将不起任何作用。

　　B、作者错误地假设了B岛的交通事故会增加是因为道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起的。事实上可能是由于该岛的道路交通设施，也可能是由于行人不遵守交通规则等等

　　C、作者并没有交待T岛交通事故下降50%的基数，如果该基数很小的话，则不能够说明T岛的该措施是成功的。例如基数只有2的话，即使只是减少1，也会有50%的下降比率。即使T岛的交通确实变得安全了，也未必是由于实行了该措施导致的，可能是由于T岛去年的气候比较好，雨雪天气少。即使确实是该措施导致，那也是去年的数据，今年未必能够同样有效。

　　D、即使该措施对于T岛今年同样有效，B岛确实是由于道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起交通事故，B岛采取T岛一样的措施后也未必能够成功。T岛和B岛的情况不尽相同。B岛采取限制后，并不一定能够减少道路上的自行车和摩托车的数量，人们可能会选择自己去购买自行车或者摩托车。

　　21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures mens clothing.

　　Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.

　　A、五年前人们喜欢穿A外套，并不表示现在人们还会穿A外套。这五年人们的穿衣喜好会改变，或者已习惯去其他外套。竞争者不生产可能从侧面说明该外套已不再受欢迎。

　　B、其他面料涨价了，A面料不一定涨。如果A面料也涨了，消费者也未必愿意付更高的钱购买A外套。

　　C、即使消费者愿意花费更高的价钱购买A外套，该公司也未必能够盈利。经济学常识，利润等于营业额减去成本。生产成本，5年为在市面上出现，需要很大的成本来建立品牌。

　　22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

　　Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year.

　　A、调查类错误。怀疑该全国调查样本选择的随机性。如果不随机，则调查结果不具有参考价值。即使该调查取样随机，也是过去5年，并不表示现在以及今后也能如此。

　　B、即使该调查结果能够反映现在以及今后，那也是全国的，并不一定适用于SC地区。正如作者所说的，SC的居民收入增长高并不意味着SC的居民愿意购买高价房。

　　C、即使SC的居民愿意购买，该公司也未必能够盈利。经济学常识，利润等于营业额减去成本。建造高价房可能要比低价房高很多的成本，如果该成本多于销售收入的增长，则不会产生盈利，甚至会初选亏损。

　　23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

　　A、如果基数比较小，增长30%没有意义。即使有意义也是在过去的5年，并不表示今后也会如此。即使今后也是如此，人们也未必喜欢到海鲜专店去吃海鲜。人们可能觉得在那些饭馆偶尔搭配海鲜会更有味道，而不是就是喜欢吃海鲜。B城现在没有海鲜专店可能从侧面反映了这个问题。

　　B、全国调查，调查类错误，抽样是否随机化。即使随机化，也是全国的，未必适用于B城。即使适用，人们不喜欢在家吃饭和喜欢更健康的食品，并不表示人们就喜欢吃海鲜，这之间不存在必然联系。

　　C、即使人们都会选择出去吃海鲜，该海鲜专店也未必会盈利。经济学常识，品牌成本。

　　24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

　　In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandviews town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes.

　　A、作者没有能够给出充分的证据说明建造一个中心的大生产厂比维护几个小生产厂要节约成本。

　　B、G地区拥有最多的成人人口并不意味着该公司就能够快而容易地雇佣到工人，可能G地区的成人普遍不太愿意在高科技工厂工作，或者该地区的成人技术上普遍不符合该厂的要求。

　　C、G地区的平均工资要比其他地区低，也未必能够能真正减少工厂的成本。因为这些工人可能工作效率比其他地区都要低。

　　D、G地区政府虽然允许该工厂前三年免交城市税，可是作者没有交待该地区城市税的具体数额，如果很大的话，即使免去前三年，三年后将对公司造成很大的经济压力。

　　25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

　　Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean Views tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewells economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.

　　A、OV地区旅游人数增加以及新商店开盘并不一定是由于建造高尔夫球场和旅馆。可能和该地区新景点的开发以及经济宏观政策有关。

　　B、即使和该地区建造高尔夫球场和旅馆有关，也是过去2年的事情，并不一定会延续。

　　C、即使会延续，由于两地的差异性，也未必能成功移植到H地区。两个地区的自然环境不同，人们的生活娱乐喜好不同，地理位置也不同。

　　D、即使对H地区的财政收入以及经济有好处，也未必是最好的。绝对化错误。可能有其他更好的方案。