gre argument 提纲(三)

　　11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.

　　Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Eggs landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.

　　A、提高垃圾收集费用并不一定能够促进可回收材料使用的增加，如果提高的费用小于人们改用可回收材料所需要支付的费用，显然很多人由于经济利益的驱使还是会选择继续使用不可回收材料的。

　　B、作者没有交待调查的基数，如果基数很小的话，例如只有10个人，那么即使有90%的人支持，由于样本数量过小，也不能够说明整体的情况。

　　C、即使是全部居民都有提高可回收材料的意愿，但是否能够落实到实际行动中作者也没有给予充分说明。即使能够落实到实际行动中，也不一定能够延长垃圾填埋坑的使用期限。因为即使人们希望提高可回收垃圾的数量，但是如果整个城市垃圾的产生速度更快，不可回收垃圾的产生速度更快，那么该垃圾填埋处仍然不能够得到延期。

　　12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

　　During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.

　　A、A公司比P公司多出现30%的工作时事故并不一定是由A公司员工的疲劳所致，A公司和P公司的工作性质可能不同，从而可能导致A公司的工作的危险性要高于P公司。

　　B、即使该情况是由于A公司的员工疲劳所致，缩短员工一个小时的工作时间也不一定能够保证员工充足的睡眠，进而减缓员工的疲劳。因为员工可能会利用多出来的一个小时做其他的事情。

　　C、即使缩短一个小时能够减少员工的疲劳，也不一定能够提高生产率。生产率不但和员工的身体状况有关，还和员工的技术熟练程度有关，也和工厂的机器设备是否先进，是否稳定有关。

　　13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.

　　We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published childrens book Squirrel Power, by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Woods last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in Squirrel Power will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs.

　　A、PW的前三本书买得好并不能够保证他的第四本书SP也能够买得好。

　　B、即使第四本书SP也能够卖得好，也不代表根据该书改编的游戏能够畅销，两者属于不同类型的产品，拥有不同的属性和用户群，电影热卖也不能说明问题，因为电影和游戏仍然属于不同的产品，拥有不同的用户群。

　　C、即使该游戏能够热卖，该游戏公司也未必能够赚到钱。正如作者所说，购买该版权将花费大量资金，而且作者并没有说明开发该游戏将要花费的资金。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本，如果该游戏厂商成本很大的话，即使游戏热卖，也未必能够实现盈利，甚至可能亏损。

　　14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

　　There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring.

　　A、首先，怀疑该全国性调查样本的随机性是否足够。如果该样本随机性不够，则不能够代表整个消费者人群，因而无法支持作者的观点。即使该全国性调查满足样本随机性，那也是全国范围的，对于该镇并不一定成立。例如该镇可能农业比较发达，蔬菜比较新鲜，那么消费者就不会抱怨蔬菜不够新鲜。

　　B、即使该调查的结果符合该镇的具体情况，人们对蔬菜的新鲜度不满意，并不能够说明人们就会喜欢种植他们自己的蔬菜，这里面不存在必然联系。因为种植蔬菜可能比较繁琐，或者有些人没有终止场所，该地区气候不适宜等。

　　C、GG杂志卖完不能够说明很多人喜欢种植自己的蔬菜，可能该杂志发行量本来就很小，或者说该杂志内还有其他的娱乐类信息吸引读者，或者该杂志进行了有奖促销等等。

　　D、即使该镇居民越来越热衷于种植自己的蔬菜，也不一定会给GTGC公司带来更多的利润，经济学常识告诉我们，利润等于销售总额减去成本。如果GTGC公司运营种子销售成本很高，例如种子本身成本，以及GTGC公司的宣传广告等品牌创造成本等，那么GTGC不但可能不会盈利，甚至有可能会亏本。另外，居民可能只喜欢种植少数的几种菜，那么增加种子多样性不会提高该公司种子的销售量。

　　15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

　　Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the companys sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

　　A、首先怀疑该调查样本的数量以及样本选择的随机性。如果该样本基数很小，那么即使有80%的人，那么其绝对数也是很小的;样本选择的随机性不够，就不能够代表整个消费者人群。另外，该调查是否采用了暗示性问题?

　　B、ODI公司的视频含有较多的脂肪和胆固醇，但并不意味着该公司的食品就卖得不好。食品的销售不但和它的营养有关，还和食品的口感、包装有关。消费者可能会因为该食品口感好而选择继续购买。

　　C、作者并没有说明ODI公司是否也在销售低脂肪和胆固醇的食品。可能ODI公司也正在着力推广该类健康食品，因此ODI公司的销售额不一定会下降。