Looking to the Future When a magazine for high-school students asked its readers what life would be like in twenty years, they said: Machines would be run by solar power. Buildings would rotate so they could follow the sun to take maximum advantage of its light and heat Walls would radiate light and change color with the push of a button. Food would be replaced by pills. School would be taught by electrical impulse while we sleep. Cars would have radar. Does this sound like the year 2000? Actually, the article was written in 1958 and the question was, what will life be like in 1978? The future is much too important to simply guess about, the way the high school students did, so experts are regularly asked to predict accurately. By carefully studying the present, skilled businessmen, scientists, and politicians are supposedly able to figure out in advance what will happen. But can they? One expert on cities wrote: Cities of the future would not be crowded, but would have space for farms and fields. People would travel to work in airbuses, large all-weather helicopters carrying up to 200 passengers. When a person left the airbus station he could drive a coin-operated car equipped with radar. The radar equipment of cars would make traffic accidents almost unheard of. Does that sound familiar? If the expert had been accurate it would, because he was writing in 1957. His subject was The city of 1982. If the professionals sometimes sound like high-school students, its probably because future study is still a new field. But economic forecasting, or predicting what the economy will do, has been around for a long time. It should be accurate, and generally it is. But there have been some big market in the field, too. In early 1929, most forecasters saw an excellent future for the stock market. In October of that year, the stock market had its worst losses ever, ruining thousands of investors who had put their faith in financial foreseers. One forecaster knew that predictions about the future would always be subject to significant error. In 1957, H.J.Rand of the Rad corporation was asked about the year 2000, Only one thing is certain, he answered. Children born today will have reached the age of 43. 1. The high-school students answers to What would life be like in 1978? sound A) accurate. B) imaginative. C) correct. D) foolish. 2. According to the writer, forecasting is fairly accurate in A) politics. B) science. C) sociology. D) economy. 3. Which of the following statements is not compatible with the writers comment on future study? A) Predictions should be accurate B) Professional sometimes sound like high-school students C) There have been some big mistakes in the field of economic forecasting. D) Predictions about future would always be subject to significant errors. 4. The passage Looking to the Future was most probably written A) in 1982 B) in 1958 C) after 1958 D) in 1957 5. H.J.Rands prediction about the year 2000 shows that A) it is easy to figure out in advance what will happen B) it is difficult to figure out in advance what will happen C) only professionals can figure out in advance what will happen D) very few professionals figure out in advance what will happen KEY: BDACB
抵制中国产品 中国警告对印度投资产生的影响
俄罗斯发射高超音速超级核弹头
That is just as well
双语笑话 第320期: 现代的爱情
Blurred lines of influence in world of letters
抗生素垃圾污染中印河流 大药厂须采取行动
Don't turn national pain into farce
Zero tolerance
Skin-deep translation may mislead
Nothing can put such a people down
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Kind lessons for robber and society
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Tiger, tiger! faking bright
联合国人道官员警告,也门距离饥荒一步之遥
希拉里会因“邮件门”调查而落选吗?
Throw in the towel?
Iraq a fool's errand?
百日离愁 奥巴马的大失误盘点
Rub the wrong way?
CNN主播辱华用词分析
Brave boy rings alarm bell for all
为啥中国游客不喜欢澳洲更喜欢去俄罗斯度假
Clean up your act
Doesn't cut it?
Good manners means avoiding the serious stuff
Letting the young learn from life
About-face
Upright and united stood the country
《日本 有罪推定》 日本低犯罪率背后深层的因素
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