2015年职称英语理工类教材阅读理解文章及译文(2)

　In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil，scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACSEnergyFuels1.

　　Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting peak oil. Peak oil is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of Peak Oil. The term Peak Oil indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.

　　The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970.The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide.

　　However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.

　　The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model，the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries，which supply most of the worlds conventional crude oil6.They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014，years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the worlds oil reserves7 are being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate，they suggest.

　　词汇：

　　conserve v.保护，保存 irreversible adj.不可逆的，不可改变的

　　crude oil原油

　　spark v.闪耀;激发;鼓舞 insufficient 不充分的，不足的

　　curve n.曲线

　　注释：

　　1.ACSEnergyFuels：ACS是American Chemical Society的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，EnergyFuels即是其中一本。

　　2.the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美国地质学家M.King Hubbert于1956年创建的，这是一个随时间增长的模型，Hubbert将其引入油气田开发，经推导使其成为一个可以预测油气田累积产量、瞬时产量、年产量和可采储量等多项开发指标的多功能预测模型。

　　3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线

　　4.that of peak oil：that指代concept。

　　5.account for：说明，解释

　　6.conventional crude oil：常规原油

　　7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。

　　4.What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?

　　A.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014.

　　B.It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries.

　　C.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.

　　D.It discovers a new gend of worldwide oil production.

　　5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?

　　A.American scientists.

　　B.Kuwaiti scientists.

　　C.British scientists.

　　D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.