[by:英语听力网|http://yingyu.chazidian.com||查字典英语网] [00:00.00]喜欢chazidian.com，就把chazidian.com复制到QQ个人资料中！Lesson 51 Predicting the future [00:07.35]51 预测未来 [00:14.71]Listen to the tape then answer the question below. [00:17.28]听录音,然后回答以下问题. [00:19.85]What was the 'future' electronic development [00:22.09]莱昂.巴格瑞特根本不可能预测的 [00:24.32]that Leon Bagrit wasn't able to foresee [00:29.79]'未来'电子技术发展是什么? [00:35.27]Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. [00:37.75]众所周知,预测未来是非常困难的. [00:40.23]Who could have imagined,in the mid 1970s,for example, [00:43.31]在20世纪70年代中叶又有谁能想象得到 [00:46.39]that by the end of the 20th century, [00:48.38]在20世纪末的时候, [00:50.36]computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? [00:53.49]家庭用的计算机会像电视机一样普遍? [00:56.61]In the 1970s,computers were common enough, [00:59.18]在70年代,计算机已经相当普及了, [01:01.75]but only in big business,government departments and large organizations. [01:05.37]但只用在大的公司政府部门和大的组织之中, [01:08.99]These were the so-called mainframe machines. [01:11.56]它们被称为主机. [01:14.14]Mainframe computers were very large indeed [01:16.56]计算机主机确实很大 [01:18.99]often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, [01:21.52]常常占据了装有空调的多间房间, [01:24.04]employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. [01:27.31]而且得用专门编写的软件才能运行. [01:30.59]Though these large machines still exist,many of their functions [01:33.62]虽然这种大计算机仍然存在,但是它们的许多功能 [01:36.65]have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, [01:39.63]已被体积小但功能齐全的个人电脑所代替了, [01:42.61]commonly known as PCs. [01:44.83]这就是我们常说的PC机. [01:47.05]In 1975,a primitive machine called the Altair,was launched in the USA. [01:51.22]1975年,美国推出了一台被称为"牛郎星"的原始机型. [01:55.38]It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' [01:58.52]严格地说,它可以被称为第一台"家用电脑", [02:01.65]and it pointed the way to the future. [02:03.68]而且它也指出了今后的方向. [02:05.70]This was followed,at the end of the 1970s,by a machine called an Apple. [02:09.44]又出现了一种被称为"苹果"的机型. [02:13.17]In the early 1980s,the computer giant, [02:15.80]80年代初计算机行业的王牌公司, [02:18.42]IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. [02:21.56]IBM生产出了世界上第一台个人电脑. [02:24.69]This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, [02:27.42]采用了磁盘操作系统（DOS）的工作程序, [02:30.15]produced by a then small company named Microsoft. [02:29.65]由当时规模不大的微软公司生产的 [02:29.15]The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. [02:32.08]IBM的个人电脑被大规模地模仿. [02:35.00]From those humble beginnings, [02:36.92]从那些简陋的初级阶段, [02:38.84]we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers [02:41.96]使用简便的家用电脑的发展, [02:45.09]and multimedia machines which are in common use today. [02:47.97]以及多媒体微机发展,现在它们都已普及 [02:50.86]Considering how recent these developments are, [02:53.13]想一想这些发展的时间多么短, [02:55.40]it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s an Englishman,Leon Bagrit [03:00.19]就更觉得英国人莱昂.巴格瑞有着非凡的能力了,早在60年代, [03:04.97]was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. [03:08.24]他就能预言我们今天知道的计算机的一些用途 [03:11.52]Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves [03:15.00]不相信计算机可以学会自己去"思考" [03:18.47]and would 'rule the world', [03:20.40]和计算机可以"统治世界"这种说法. [03:22.34]which people liked to believe in those days. [03:24.47]而这种想法是当时的人们都愿意相信的. [03:26.60]Bagrit foresaw a time when computers [03:28.97]巴格瑞特预示有一天计算机 [03:31.35]would be small enough to hold in the hand, [03:33.37]可以小到能拿在手上 [03:35.40]when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams [03:38.53]计算机可以提供有关交通阴塞的信息, [03:41.67]and suggesting alterative routes, [03:43.80]并建议可供选择的其他路线, [03:45.93]when they would be used in hospitals