特朗普当选将威胁美国和世界经济

On June 23, the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU. On November 8, the US will vote on whether to elect Donald Trump as president. These elections have much in common. Both could lead to outcomes that would have seemed inconceivable not long ago. Both pit angry populists against the political establishment. And in both cases, polling suggests that the outcome is in doubt, with prediction markets suggesting a probability of between one in four and one in three of the radical outcome occurring.

6月23日，英国将投票决定是否继续留在欧盟(EU)内。11月8日，美国将投票决定是否选举唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)为总统。这两场投票有很多相似之处。它们可能导致的结果，在不久前看来都还让人觉得不可思议。两者都是愤怒的民粹主义者对上政治建制派。对于两场投票，民调均显示结果难以预料，预测市场显示极端结果出现的可能性在四分之一至三分之一之间。

It is interesting to contrast the way that financial markets are reacting to these uncertainties. The markets are highly sensitive to Brexit news: the pound and the British stock market move with every new opinion poll. Analysis of option pricing suggests that if Britain votes to leave the EU, sterling could easily fall by more than 10 per cent and the British stock market by almost as much. It is widely believed that the uncertainties associated with Brexit are consequential enough to affect the policies of the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

对比金融市场对待这两种不确定性的方式十分有趣。市场对“英国退欧”(Brexit)消息高度敏感：英镑汇率和英国股市随着每一次新的民调结果而波动。期权定价分析表明，如果英国投票决定退出欧盟，英镑汇率会轻松下跌10%以上，英国股市也差不多。人们普遍认为，与英国退欧相关的不确定性足以影响美联储(Fed)和其他主要央行的政策。

It would in all likelihood be economically very costly for Britain to leave the EU and would raise questions about the future cohesion of the UK. It would also threaten London’s role as a financial centre and curtail British exports to Europe.

如果英国退出欧盟，很可能付出高昂的经济代价，并引发人们对英国未来凝聚力的质疑。这还会威胁伦敦作为金融中心的地位，并使得英国向欧洲的出口下滑。

What I find surprising is that US and global markets and financial policymakers seem much less sensitive to “Trump risk” than they are to “Brexit risk”. Options markets suggest only modestly elevated volatility in the period leading up to the presidential election. While every Fed watcher comments on the implications of Brexit for the central bank, few, if any, comment on the possible consequences of a victory for Mr Trump in November.

让我感到意外的是，美国、全球市场以及金融政策制定者对“特朗普风险”的敏感性似乎比对“英国退欧风险”低得多。期权市场显示，在美国总统大选之前的这段时间内，波动性只是小幅上扬。所有的美联储观察人士都对英国退欧对这家央行的影响进行了评论，但是很少有人（如果有的话）对特朗普11月胜选的可能结果进行评论。

Yet, as great as the risks of Brexit are to the British economy, I believe the risks to the US and global economies of Mr Trump’s election as president are far greater. If he is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.

而我认为，尽管英国退欧对英国经济造成的风险很大，特朗普当选美国总统对美国乃至全球经济的影响要大得多。如果他当选，我预计美国18个月内将陷入旷日持久的衰退。受到损害的将远不止美国。

First, there is a substantial risk of highly erratic policy. Mr Trump has raised the possibility of more than $10tn in tax cuts, which would threaten US fiscal stability. He has also raised the possibility of the US restructuring its debt in the manner of a failed real estate developer. Perhaps this is just campaign rhetoric. But historical research suggests that presidents tend to carry out their major campaign promises.

首先，存在政策高度不稳定的巨大风险。特朗普提出了减税逾10万亿美元的可能性，这将威胁美国的财政稳定。他还提出了以破产房地产开发商的方式对美国债务进行重组的可能性。或许，这只是竞选口号。但是，历史研究表明，美国总统往往会兑现他们的主要竞选承诺。

The shadow boxing over raising the debt limit in 2011 (where all participants recognised the danger of default) was central to the stock market falling by 17 per cent.

2011年围绕提高债务上限的激辩（各方均认识到了违约风险），是股市下跌17%的核心原因。

Second, in a world economy defined by global integration, Mr Trump’s economic nationalism is highly dangerous. Exports have been a major driver of the American economy in recent years. What would happen to exports if the US were to build a wall along its southern border and abrogate all its trade treaties? Withdrawal from trade agreements does not currently require congressional approval. If Mr Trump did even half of what he has promised, he would surely set off the worst trade war since the Great Depression.

其次，在全球一体化定义的世界经济中，特朗普的经济民族主义高度危险。近年来，出口一直是美国经济的主要推动力。如果美国沿着南方边境建起隔离墙并废除一切贸易条约，美国出口会出现何种结果？目前，退出贸易协定并不需要国会批准。哪怕特朗普只兑现他的一半承诺，也一定会挑起自“大萧条”(Great Depression)以来最严重的贸易战。

Third, prosperity depends on a secure geopolitical environment. Requiring Japan and Korea to defend themselves and scaling back Nato is a prescription for emboldening China and Russia and promoting nuclear proliferation. A perception that the US is at war with Islam rather than with radical elements within Islam is an invitation to terrorism. In such an environment, investment and trade are unlikely to flourish.

第三，繁荣取决于安全的地缘政治环境。要求日本和韩国自我防御、缩减北约(Nato)规模，会怂恿中国和俄罗斯，并刺激核扩散。如果美国被认为是与整个伊斯兰世界、而不仅是与伊斯兰极端分子开战，这无异于向恐怖主义发出邀请。在这样的环境中，投资和贸易不太可能蓬勃发展。

Fourth, Mr Trump’s authoritarian style and cult of personality surely would take a toll on business confidence. He has proposed to bring back torture as a tool of US foreign policy and to change the law so he can sue and punish publications he does not like. The country was paralysed by Watergate and to a lesser extent the Iran-Contra scandal, both of which involved extralegal activity by the president’s staff and the abuse of power. Who will rest secure with President Trump controlling the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Central Intelligence Agency?

第四点，特朗普的独裁风格和个人崇拜必然会对商业信心造成负面影响。他提议把酷刑重新作为美国外交政策的工具，修改法律以使他可以起诉和惩罚他不喜欢的出版方。美国曾因“水门事件”(Watergate)和“伊朗门”(Iran-Contra)丑闻而瘫痪（后者影响相对较轻）——两起事件均涉及总统工作人员的法外活动和滥用职权。若特朗普总统控制联邦调查局(FBI)和中央情报局(CIA)，谁能高枕无忧？

Finally, there is the question of uncertainty and confidence. Improving business confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus. Creating an environment where every tenet of the rule of law, internationalism and consistency in policy is up for grabs would be the best way to damage a still fragile US economy. In no election in my lifetime has a major party candidate for president been so dangerous for the economy.

最后是不确定性和信心方面的问题。改善商业信心是成本最低的刺激方式。制造一个将法治、国际主义和政策一贯性的所有原则都抛到空中的环境，是损害仍然脆弱的美国经济的最佳方式。我有生以来从来没见过任何一次选举出现某一政党的总统候选人对经济构成如此大的威胁。

Markets are discounting the possibility of a Trump presidency. Let us all pray they are right.

市场低估了特朗普当选美国总统的可能性。让我们一起祈祷他们是正确的吧。