国际投资者如何看待中国牛市

Direct quotas to invest in China have been unexpectedly revived as foreign investors select tried-and-tested ways to ride theequity bull run in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

直接投资于中国内地股市的资金额度意外大幅增长，因为境外投资者选择经过实践检验的方式来参与上海和深圳的牛市。

Bankers and lawyers had expected the introduction of the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect, the first direct market link between Chinese mainland and the outside world, launched six months ago this week to lower interest in using existing systems. In these, investors either apply for their own permission from Beijing — a lengthy process — or pay to use someone else’s quota, such as their bank’s.

银行家和律师们本来预计“沪港通”的推出将会降低投资者使用现有机制的兴趣。“沪港通”于半年前的本周启动，是首个将中国内地与外部世界连接起来的市场机制。而在直接投资额度机制下，投资者要么自己向中国政府申请额度（这是一个漫长的过程），要么花钱使用其他人的额度，比如他们所在银行的额度。

But China’s surging stocks have produced a scramble for exposure to the gains, particularly from foreign fund managers who may not be benchmarked to China itself, but risk underperforming if they don’t find ways of following the rally and any spillover effects.

但中国内地股市飙升吸引投资者纷纷涌入，尤其是外国基金公司，它们可能还没有以中国市场为基准，但如果不设法跟随中国股市上涨并分享溢出效应，它们的业绩就可能落后于他人。

In spite of a correction last week, Shanghai has still risen 76 per cent in the past six months while Shenzhen has added 80 per cent. Hong Kong has gained 16 per cent, helped by a recent rally that was supported by record trading volumes.

尽管上周出现了回调，但上海市场在过去6个月里仍上涨了76%，同时深圳市场上涨了80%。在创纪录交易量的帮助下，香港市场最近大涨，半年来累计上涨了16%。

The Stock Connect’s limited range of 300 companies and overseas investors’ ongoing issues with ownership of the shares they buy has left many preferring to rely on the use of quotas instead.

“沪港通”机制所涵盖的公司数量有限，而且境外投资者购买的股票还存在所有权问题，这让许多投资者仍愿意使用配额机制。

“When Stock Connect was about to start, the expectation was there would be less demand for quotas, but we’ve seen no curtailment yet,” says Michael Chan, head of BNY Mellon’s Asia-Pacific asset servicing business.

纽银梅隆(BNY Mellon)亚太资产服务业务主管Michael Chan表示：“在‘沪港通’即将启动之际，人们预期直接投资额度需求将会下降，但我们迄今没有看到任何需求下降的情况。”

China’s qualified foreign institutional investor scheme — QFII, pronounced “kew-fie” — has been in place for more than a decade with few significant changes to its structure apart from a gradual increase of total approvals, which were standing at $72bn in late March.

中国的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)项目已经推出了十多年，除了获批额度总额逐步增加以外一直没有大的改变——今年3月底总额度为720亿美元。

There is also a Rmb330bn ($53bn) RQFII scheme, allowing approved users to use offshore renminbi for onshore investments.

此外中国还有一项总额度为3300亿元人民币（合530亿美元）的人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)项目，RQFII牌照持有者可用离岸持有的人民币投资中国内地市场。

In March, Fidelity was granted a tripling of its QFII quota to $1.2bn, making it the first non-government institution to be approved for more than $1bn — a move seen as a further broadening of the scheme.

今年3月，富达(Fidelity)获得的QFII额度增加两倍至12亿美元，从而成为首个获批逾10亿美元投资额度的非政府机构，此举被视为中国政府进一步扩大该项目的迹象。

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been working frantically to address problems raised by international fund managers, who have had concerns over the legal status of investments held through Stock Connect and their ownership of those shares at various points during the trading cycle.

香港交易所(Hong Kong Stock Exchange)一直致力于解决国际基金公司提出的问题，后者担忧通过“沪港通”持有的投资的法律地位以及交易周期内不同时点所购股份的所有权问题。

“Stock Connect is being used by banks and mostly new users — hedge funds and smaller asset managers who may not have had access before. That will change as it develops,” says Stephane Loiseau, head of Société Générale’s cash equities and execution services business in Asia.

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的亚洲股票现货和执行服务业务主管斯特凡纳•卢瓦索(Stephane Loiseau)表示：“目前在使用‘沪港通’的主要是银行以及新用户——之前未能进入内地市场的对冲基金和规模较小的资产管理公司——这种情况将会随着该项目的发展而改变。”

Another issue is the different holidays in Hong Kong and the mainland. These mean the northbound trading link — the pipe through which foreigners buy — is closed on Shanghai holidays as well as Hong Kong ones. It is also closed on the days before a Hong Kong holiday since trades are settled the following day. In total that adds up to 28 days with no access even though six of them are not market holidays in Hong Kong.

另一个问题是香港和内地的节假日差异。这意味着沪股通——也就是境外投资者购买内地股票的渠道——在上海和香港两地的节假日都会关闭。此外，由于交易在第二天进行结算，沪股通在香港节假日休市的前一天也会关闭。全年总计有28天投资者无法通过该渠道投资，尽管其中6天并非香港的休市时间。

“This is one of the big drawbacks and should have been taken care of before Stock Connect opened,” says Nicole Yuen, head of greater China equities at Credit Suisse, who also felt the ownership issues should have been cleared up before the link opened.

“这是一个重大缺陷，本应在沪港通启动前解决，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)大中华地区证券部主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)表示，她还认为所有权问题也应在沪港通启动前解决。

“We’re at the cusp of China opening up and it isn’t just about opening the doors, it has to be done right. There’s a balance needed between access to China and doing that with the core values of Hong Kong and international markets.”

“我们处在中国改革开放的节点上，不仅要打开大门，还要处理得当。在打开中国的入口和在这一进程中保证香港和国际市场的核心价值之间，需要取得一个平衡。”

Longer term, however, market participants expect more investors, institutional and other, to use Stock Connect as it expands. A link with the Shenzhen exchange, home to many tech groups and start-ups, is expected later this year.

然而，更长期来看，市场参与者预计随着沪港通不断拓展，将有更多机构投资者和其他投资者使用这一投资渠道。与深圳交易所的连通渠道预计将于今年晚些时候开放。深交所是许多科技集团和初创公司的上市地。

“People are looking at Stock Connect and going ‘well, people are coming in, China is opening up and we need to get in there before the rush’,” says Mark Shipman, a partner at Clifford Chance who specialises in structuring investment funds.

“人们正在观察沪港通，并且这样思考‘投资者正在进入，中国正在开放，我们需要在热潮到来前进入’，”高伟绅律师事务所(Clifford Chance)专注结构性投资基金业务的合伙人马克•希普曼(Mark Shipman)说。

The Stock Connect also offers investors the sort of virtually anonymous access to China they get elsewhere — unlike QFII, where approvals mean investors are known and their trading decisions tracked.

沪港通还为投资者提供了他们在其他地方可以获得的那种几乎匿名的投资渠道。这一点与QFII不同，获准QFII资格意味着投资者会为外界所知，交易决策也会被追踪。

Mr Loiseau described China as “a trend, not just a hot topic”.

兴业银行的卢瓦索形容中国代表着“一种趋势，并不仅仅是一个热门话题”。

“If you’re an investor in Club Med, now you know about Fosun [which bought the French holiday group in February],” he says. “Not every Chinese asset is listed in New York like Alibaba — investors have to come to Hong Kong and China eventually.”

“如果你是地中海俱乐部(Club Méditerranée)的投资者，你现在知道复星（Fosun，今年2月收购了这家法国度假村集团）了，”他说，“并不是每一项中国资产都像阿里巴巴(Alibaba)那样在纽约上市——投资者最终必须到香港和中国内地来。”