北京写字楼供应告急

The Beijing Olympics were accompanied by a huge infrastructure and property building spree that was supposed to set China's capital up for years to come. The city has faced repeated accusations of building too much, too fast, and overestimating the real level of demand - not to mention urban planning buffs' complaints that Beijing's vast roads and fragmented sprawl ignore the profession's best prescriptions for efficient development.

北京奥运会曾带来了一波巨大的基础设施和房地产建设热潮，当时有人认为这波热潮将在北京持续数年。北京曾多次面临建筑过多、建设过快、高估了实际需求水平等指责，更不用说城市规划爱好者的抱怨了，他们批评说，北京开阔的道路和碎片化的道路扩张完全无视规划部门为实现高效发展而制定的最佳方案。

Five years on, with barely a pause in its breakneck growth, the capital appears to have run out of office space.

五年来，虽然飞快建设的步伐几乎从无停歇，北京的写字楼供应似乎开始告急。

With the city's existing office space more or less full up, Beijing has 'no option' but to build out further out in the suburbs, according to Marcos Chan, head of North China research at Jones Lang LaSalle, a real estate services firm.

房地产服务公司仲量联行(Jones Lang Lasalle)华北区研究部主管陈锦平(Marcos Chan)说，随着现有写字楼或多或少都租满了，北京没有其他选择，只能向郊区扩建。

At just 4.4%, he thinks the city's office vacancy rates are below the 'natural rate' needed to allow the market to churn - like the vital empty slot in a sliding block puzzle. 'It's basically fully occupied,' said Mr. Chan. 'If you want to expand your business in Beijing, there is simply not much space available.'

他说，北京写字楼空置率仅为4.4%，低于市场良好运转需要的“自然空置率”，就像滑块类游戏都要有一个至关重要的空位一样。他说，北京的写字楼基本都租满了，如果你想在北京拓展业务，这里的写字楼房源已经不多了。

That has made Beijing offices the country's most expensive for tenants, with top-grade rents almost doubling between 2008 and 2017. Shanghai office rents grew by less than 10% in the same period, according to JLL's figures.

这也导致北京成为全国写字楼租金最贵的地方，顶级写字楼租金在2008年至2017年期间上涨了近一倍。据仲量联行的数据，上海写字楼租金同期仅上涨了不到10%。

The government has grand plans for a new financial district at Lize in southwestern Beijing to ease the shortage. The planned cluster of banks, insurers and private equity firms will make up the capital's third financial zone. In the 1990s, when the authorities dreamed up Finance Street on the west side of town, the new center was supposed to take pressure off the capital's traditional business district in the east. Finance Street didn't take long to fill up - vacancy rates there are as low as 2%, Mr. Chan said.

北京市政府已经制定了宏大的将西南部丽泽区建设成为一个新的金融区的计划，以缓解写字楼供应短缺局面。这个将汇集银行、保险公司和私募股权投资公司的新区将成为北京第三个金融区。上世纪90年代，当有关部门计划在北京城西兴建金融街时，这个新金融中心曾被认为将缓解东部传统商业区的压力。陈锦平说，金融街的写字楼没用多久就都租出去了，空置率低至2%。

Beijing's government also has a vision for the satellite towns surrounding the capital. A new airport is planned for Daxing, south of the city - Beijing Capital International Airport, the world's second-busiest by passenger numbers, said in its latest annual report it was reaching saturation point. And unglamorous suburbs like Fangshan and Tongzhou will be designated as 'hubs' for specific industries, like petrochemicals and 'cultural industries,' respectively.

北京市政府也对北京周边的卫星城有所规划。南部的大兴拟建一座新机场，北京首都国际机场(Beijing Capital International Airport)已在最近的年报中表示，即将达到饱和点。按乘客数量计，该机场是全球第二繁忙的机场。房山和通州等不太繁荣的郊区将被定为特定行业的中心，比如房山和通州将分别被规划为石油化工和“文化产业”中心。

China is in the midst of an orgy of building, with 5.7 billion square meters of office space under construction, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Far away from the capital, smaller cities like Zhengzhou, Changsha and Nanchang are building whole new commercial districts.

中国正在上演一场建筑狂欢，据中国国家统计局的数据，在建写字楼建筑面积总计57亿平方米。离北京较远的郑州、长沙和南昌等城市正在兴建全新的商业区。

Lize is currently a vast construction site, where new skyscrapers rise above the overgrown remains of the three-story apartment houses that once covered the site. In Shuitouzhuang, a half-demolished compound that was once home to 400 residents, only one family remains. Answering the door, Ms. Li said she and her family were still discussing compensation with the city government. Though visibly saddened by the loss of her neighborhood, Ms. Li said the authorities had been reasonable.

丽泽金融商务区目前是一个广阔的建筑工地，新的摩天大楼在杂草丛生的废墟中拔地而起，这里原先是一些三层住宅楼。在水头庄，一个曾经有400个住户的居民区已经拆掉一半，只有一个家庭还未搬走。李（音）女士给记者打开门说，她和她的家人仍在与市政府讨论拆迁补偿问题。尽管失去老邻居明显令她感到难过，李女士说，有关部门还是讲理的。

'I have faith that the government will resolve this question,' she said. 'I'll accept their decision on compensation. Whatever they decide, I won't ask for one fen more.'

她说，我相信政府会解决这个问题，我会接受他们对补偿问题的决定，无论他们做出怎样的决定，我都不会多要一分钱。

Sixty-year-old Mrs. Li has lived at Shuitouzhuang for 20 years - ever since her last home, a single story house near Beijing South railway station, was bulldozed for redevelopment.

现年60岁的李女士已经在水头庄居住20年了，此前她住在北京南站附近的一个平房里，那里因为要重建也已经拆迁了。

Beijing is not alone in building out forests of gleaming new office blocks in the middle of nowhere. London did the same when it designated the industrial wasteland around Canary Wharf as a financial hub back in the 1980s. What was ridiculed at the time as a quixotic venture is now one of the world's key financial centers. The development succeeded on its own terms, even if locals complain that it is miles from anything and has all the soul of a car showroom.

北京并不是唯一一个在偏远郊区兴建闪闪发光的新写字楼森林的城市。伦敦也曾在上世纪80年代将金丝雀码头(Canary Wharf)附近的工业废弃地规划为一个金融中心。尽管当时被嘲讽为不切实际的冒险，现在这里已经成为全球主要金融中心之一。这一开发项目靠自身努力取得了成功，尽管当地人抱怨这里离市区太远，并且设计理念完全类似于汽车展厅。

But China already has a major international financial center at Shanghai, and a secondary stock exchange in the southern city of Shenzhen. Seventy miles south-east of Beijing, Tianjin has ambitions to turn itself into a banking center. If China's troubled financial system really hits the rocks some of those offices are going to be empty a very long time.

但中国已经有上海这个主要国际金融中心了，并且在深圳建立了另一个股票交易所。天津市则雄心勃勃地打算将自身建设成为一个银行业中心。如果中国麻烦缠身的金融系统真的触礁，这些写字楼中的一些恐怕要在很长时间内空置了。