科技开创全民制造时代

In his State of the Union Address, President Obama made a big deal about manufacturing jobs as a central part of his economic vision for the country. "Our first priority is making America a magnet for new jobs in manufacturing", he proclaimed. I support the president's aim and passion to revive manufacturing, but to accomplish it we first have to jettison industrial era thinking. The industrial era and the 7.1 million manufacturing jobs lost in the U.S. from 1979 to 2017 aren't coming back. We must create new 21st century manufacturing jobs that leverage what America is great at, creativity and innovation. Manufacturing will grow in the U.S. when we accelerate the use of technology to increase productivity, enable new business models designed for mass customization and unleash the manufacturers in all of us.

美国总统奥巴马在国情咨文演讲中把制造业工作岗位当作美国经济发展蓝图中的重头戏。他说：“我们首要的任务，是要把美国变成新的制造业工作岗位的吸铁石。”我支持奥巴马复兴制造业的目标和热情，但是要实现这个目标，我们首先要抛弃工业时代的旧思想。工业时代已经一去不返了，同时消失的还有美国1979年至2017年间在美国消亡的710万个制造业岗位。我们必须建立能够利用美国现有优势的21世纪的制造业岗位。随着我们加快利用科技促进产能，美国的制造业一定会再次增长，而且会催生为大规模定制化生产服务的新商业模式，释放我们所有人的制造才能。

To begin, we need to recognize that manufacturing isn't an industry sector, it's a capability with plenty of opportunity for innovation. We take industry sector definitions for granted. As if industries were clubs with exclusive admission criteria and secret handshakes only revealed to companies that agree to play by understood rules. The industrial era was defined by clearly delineated industries, making it easy to identify which sector every company was competing in. It was all so gentlemanly really, as if competition was governed, like boxing, by a code of generally accepted Marquess of Queensberry rules. Companies were all assigned a numerical Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code (now North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS) identifying which industry sector they fit in to.

首先，我们需要认识到，制造并不单纯的是一个产业部门，而是一种能力，其中蕴含着许多创新机会。只是目前我们理所当然地把它看成一个产业部门。工业时代的“产业”就像一个个俱乐部，每个产业都有各自的准入标准和暗箱操作，只向那些同意按规则出牌的公司敞开。工业时代是由一个个界定清晰的产业构成的，我们很容易就能把每家公司归类到一个个产业部门里。看似颇有君子之风，就好像大家都在监督之下公平竞争，就像拳击赛一样，人人都要按规则出招。每个企业都会有一个标准产业代码（SIC）（现为北美产业分类系统，简称NAICS），用来确定各自属于哪个产业部门。

Those days are over. Industries don't work that way any more, the industrial era isn't coming back. Is Google (GOOG) a manufacturer or a service provider or both? Their acquisition of Motorola Mobility and U.S. production of the Nexus Q home media player suggest Google is serious about building manufacturing capability. Is Apple (AAPL) a manufacturer or a service provider or both? It's hard to tell the difference between a manufacturer and a service provider and the distinction is limiting. Today the lines are blurring. Think iPod. Apple didn't bring the first MP3 player to the market. It changed the way we experienced music by delivering on a value proposition that bundled product (iPod) and service (iTunes). Apple didn't view the competition as other product manufacturers Apple is a market maker not a share-taker.

但是这样的日子已经结束了。各个产业的运行规则也不复如旧，工业时代也一去不返。谷歌（Google）到底是一家生产商还是服务商，或者两者兼而有之？谷歌收购摩托罗拉移动（Motorola Mobility），在美国生产Nexus Q家庭媒体播放器，表明谷歌在非常认真地打造自己的生产能力。苹果（Apple）算生产商还是服务商，又或两者兼而有之呢？现在我们已经很难指出生产商和服务商之间的区别，而且二者之间的区别也很有限。如今生产商和服务商之间的界限正在渐渐模糊。以iPod为例，苹果并不是第一个推出MP3播放器的厂家。但是苹果把它的产品（iPod）和服务（iTunes）捆绑推出后，给我们带来了一种新的价值定位，改变了我们体验音乐的方式。苹果看待竞争的角度与其他产品生产商不同，苹果并不是抢占市场，而是在创造市场。

Industrial-era thinking and NAICS industry codes force companies into characterizing their business models as being either product- or service-focused. This is a false choice. Making a product doesn't define the market a company is creating or competing in. Describing a business as a manufacturer immediately constrains business model innovation opportunities. If we want to bring back manufacturing we have to start by changing our thinking about manufacturing.

工业时代的思维方式以及NAICS产业代码使企业的思维模式陷入窠臼，它们的业务模式不是以产品为中心，就是以服务为中心。这是一种错误的选择。生产一种产品，并不意味着一家公司只能在某个市场里竞争。把一家公司定位成生产商会限制业务模式的创新机会。如果我们希望重振美国的制造业，我们必须改变对制造业的思维模式。

Once we realize that manufacturing is a capability we can get on with democratizing it. We can all be manufacturers. In the State of the Union Address President Obama announced his plan for a $1 billion investment to build a National Network for Manufacturing Innovation composed of fifteen advanced manufacturing hubs. To bring manufacturing back to the U.S. we don't need fifteen hubs, we need fifteen million makers creating stuff.

一旦我们意识到，制造是一种能力，我们就可以通过把制造业大众化来实现这个目标。我们人人都可以成为制造商。奥巴马在国情咨文中宣布，计划投资10亿美元建立一个全国制造业创新网络，这个网络由15个先进的制造业中枢组成。要想让美国的制造业复兴，我们并不需要15个制造业中枢，我们需要的是1,500万个可以制造创新产品的人。

It won't be long before everyone will have access to a 3D printer. Talk about democratized manufacturing capability. Armed with a 3D printer, individual makers can create their own digital design for any imagined object or borrow a design from anywhere around the world. By simply pressing a button makers can set a 3D printer into motion rendering the physical object with layers of plastic or other material right before their eyes. What was science fiction ten years ago is reality today. It wasn't long ago we listened to the whir of a dot-matrix printer spitting out documents from our computers, now a 3D printer renders any object we can dream up the same way. With the magic of 3D printing capability we are all manufacturers, constrained only by our imaginations.

在不久的将来，3D打印技术将走进千家万户。这是制造能力的大众化。有了3D打印机后，人人都可以通过数码设计制造出各种想象中的物体，或者借用不管来自世界哪个角落的某种设计。只需要按一个按钮，3D打印机就可以用一层层的塑料或其它材质，把你设计的物品在你眼前“打印”出来。10年前的科幻小说情节如今已经成为现实。事实上，能让我们的电脑打印纸质文档的点矩阵打印机，还是不久之前才发明出来的，而现在3D打印机又以同样的方式，使我们梦想的各种物体都能呈现在我们眼前。有了3D打印机的魔力，人人都是制造商，唯一能限制我们的，就是我们的想象力。

I agree with President Obama that our national mantra should be to make more stuff. I just think the effort should be less top-down and more bottom-up. The maker movement is already in full swing. If you want to witness it first hand just go to one of the 60 community Maker Fairesbeing held around the world in 2013. Maker Faires are all-age community gatherings of makers. They are part science fair, part county fair, and part something entirely new. 165,000 people attended the two flagship Maker Faires in the Bay Area and New York in 2017. If you go, prepare to be blown away by an infectious passion to make things, creativity to hack and reassemble the parts and a do-it-yourself (DIY) fire in the belly that won't be stopped.

奥巴马把复兴美国经济的希望寄托在重振制造业上，我同意他的观点。但我认为，在实践这个目标的过程中，应该减少从上至下的成分，更多的是要自下而上。“全民造物”运动已经在蓬勃发展了。如果你想亲眼见证它的发展，只需要参加2013年全球60个民间制造者大会中的一个。制造者大会是老老少少的民间制造者的盛会，它既是科学盛会，也是地区盛会，同时也是一种前所未有的新生事务。2017年，有16.5万人参加了旧金山湾区和纽约的两场创造者大会。如果你也去的话，你一定会被那种亲手制造东西的热情所感染，你心里一定会无可遏制地冒出亲自动手敲敲打打、组装零件和DIY点什么东西的念头。

A maker movement is already happening across the country. Imagine if instead of looking for top down solutions in a small number of manufacturing hubs we encouraged the bottom up maker momentum emerging in every community. Less push, more pull. We can all be manufacturers.

“全民造物”运动已经在美国各地蓬勃展开了。想象一下，如果美国的每一个社区都由下而上地迸发出生产热情，而不是由上而下地依赖几个生产中枢，那会是什么情形。少一些“推动”，多一些“拉动”，我们人人都能成为制造家。

Saul Kaplan is the author of The Business Model Innovation Factory. He is the founder and chief catalyst of the Business Innovation Factory (BIF) in Providence, RI, and blogs regularly at It's Saul Connected.

本文作者索尔．卡普兰是《商业模式创新工厂》一书的作者，也是美国罗德岛州普罗维登斯市的商业创新工厂公司的创始人和首席分析师，定期在It's Saul Connected网站发表博文。