经纪公司称中国的威士忌泡沫越来越大

To the Chinese stock market and property bubbles, now add the whisky bubble.

除股市泡沫和楼市泡沫以外，中国现在又多了一个威士忌泡沫。

That's what analysts at brokerage firm Redburn are cautioning for spirit makers looking to sell the tipple to the huge Chinese market, and it's not without precedent. Japan went through such Scotch-fueled exuberance in the 1970s and 1980s, say the analysts, and spirit makers are still haunted by the hangover from that experience.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images这是经纪公司Redburn的分析师向那些想在巨大的中国市场销售威士忌的酿酒公司发出的警告。这种泡沫并不是第一次出现。分析师说，日本在上世纪70年代和80年代就经历过一轮相似的威士忌狂欢，而酿酒公司至今仍对当年的宿醉记忆犹新。

According to Redburn, Scotch is in fact a highly economically-sensitive product, with demand closely tracking economic upturns and downturns. Following the economic slump of the 1970s in the West, Scotch makers turned to the most promising market, Japan, where their marketing efforts, and the behavior of newly-rich Japanese consumers has many parallels with the Chinese market today.

据Redburn说，威士忌实际上是一种与经济形势息息相关的产品，需求紧紧跟随着经济的起伏而起伏。在上世纪70年代西方经济遭受重挫之后，威士忌生产商转向了最有希望的市场──日本。当时酒商的营销手段和日本新富消费者的行为跟今天的中国市场有很多相似之处。

"The Japanese consumer acquired a taste for premium Scotch and many deluxe brands, such as Johnnie Walker Gold Label, were launched exclusively for the Japanese market. But Japanese consumption was increasingly not on the back of increased connoisseurship, rather it was price-insensitive executives spending on the corporate credit card," writes Redburn.

Redburn写道，日本消费者喜欢喝优质威士忌，很多奢侈品牌都是专门面向日本市场推出的，尊尼获加金牌 ((Johnnie Walker Gold Label)威士忌就是其一。但日本威士忌消费越来越依赖刷公司的信用卡且不在意价格的企业高管，而不是人们鉴赏能力的提高。

Then came the bust in the early 1990s, and the bursting of the Japanese whisky bubble which Scotch makers were not prepared for.

然而接下来90年代初期经济泡沫的破灭以及日本威士忌泡沫的破灭让酿酒公司猝不及防。

"If consumption is based on fashion or corporate expense accounts then there is no inherent brand equity to weather a downturn in either the economic or fashion cycle," says Redburn.

Redburn说，如果威士忌消费的基础是时尚或公司报销，那么就没有内在的品牌价值来抵挡经济周期或时尚周期的下行。

Diageo PLC, which on Wednesday announced plans to invest more than 1 billion pounds (US$1.52 billion) in Scotch whisky production over the next five years concentrating on emerging markets, produces a premium vodka in China exclusively for that market, called Shanghai White. In Shanghai, it runs the Johnnie Walker House, where, according to its website, it is "an embassy for whisky culture."

帝亚吉欧(Diageo PLC)周三宣布将在未来五年投资逾10亿英镑（合15.2亿美元）用于扩大威士忌产能，新兴市场是主要的目标市场。该公司在中国产有一种专门针对这个市场的超高档伏特加，名为“海上幻”(Shanghai White)。它在上海运营着尊尼获加“尊邸”(Johnnie Walker House)，其网站说，这是“威士忌文化的使馆”。

China is already the top market for France's Remy Cointreau SA's Remy Martin cognac, but the company has repeatedly said that it has plans to spend up to 1 billion euros to acquire new premium brands, such as an upmarket whisky that is popular in China.

中国已经是法国人头马-君度集团(Remy Cointreau SA)人头马干邑的最大市场，但该公司曾反复表示打算投入最高10亿欧元用于收购新的优质品牌，比如一款在中国很受欢迎的高档威士忌。

Even politicians have jumped on the bandwagon, with Britain and China signing an agreement in 2010 to ensure that only Scottish-made whisky be allowed to be sold as Scotch in China, partly because counterfeit Scotch is a problem.

甚至连政界都来凑热闹。英国和中国在2010年签署了一份协议，以确保只有苏格兰生产的威士忌才能作为苏格兰威士忌(Scotch)在中国出售。部分原因在于中国的假冒苏格兰威士忌泛滥成灾。

Redburn says there's no guarantee that Scotch will be able to gain mass appeal in China, beyond just being the tipple of choice for the ultra-wealthy class. It says Scotch tastes vary widely in the region and do not show direct correlation with income. Where GDP per capita is high, such as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, Scotch consumption is actually much lower than in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.

Redburn说，无法保证苏格兰威士忌在成为极富阶层最爱饮品之外，还能够受到中国普通民众的欢迎。它说，亚洲各地对苏格兰威士忌的喜好差异很大，与收入没有直接关系。日本、新加坡和香港等地人均GDP较高，但其苏格兰威士忌的消费量却大大少于韩国、台湾和泰国。

In addition, whisky and other spirits face stiff competition against China's national drink, baijiu, which is distilled from sorghum, wheat or rice, and dominates the alcohol market by a long way. Not surprisingly, there's also talk of there being a baijiu bubble in China, driven by the drink's popularity not just for consumption, but also for investment and gifts.

除此以外，威士忌等酒水还面临着中国国饮──白酒的激烈竞争。白酒用高粱、小麦或大米蒸馏而成，在中国酒水市场占据着绝对的支配地位。毫不奇怪地，也有人在说中国存在白酒泡沫，因为白酒受欢迎不仅是为了用于消费，而且是用于投资和送礼。

On the other hand, India, which has a tradition of drinking Scotch dating back to the colonial era, is a market of huge promise for spirit makers, says Redburn. However, low incomes and high import tariffs are obstacles to growth. India and the European Union are currently in trade talks, where European officials are hoping for steep tariff cuts on liquor.

Redbum说，对于酿酒公司来说，印度是一个大有希望的市场，因为它拥有发端于殖民时期的威士忌饮用传统。但由于收入水平低而且进口关税高，印度这个市场成长受限。眼下，印度和欧盟正在举行贸易谈判，欧洲官员希望印度大幅降低酒水的关税。