美国大批公务员遭裁员导致失业率居高不下

自从2008年金融危机以来，美国的工作岗位大幅下降，不仅仅在住房金融相关的领域，所有的行业领域都大量地减少了工作岗位。之所以近日的就业数据并不难看，有一个不得不提的概念是“劳动参与率”——美国有越来越多的失业者被排除出了失业率统计。

The economy

经济

Unequal pain

不平等的痛

The public sector is still hobbling the economy。

政府部门还在拖经济的后腿。

THE fates of the American economy and the presidency of Barack Obama are inextricably linked, and both of them hit a bump in April. The economy added 252,000 jobs each month between December and February, but that rate seems to be slowing. Payrolls rose by just 154,000 in March and by only 115,000 in April. Unemployment dropped in April, from 8.2% to 8.1%， but for the wrong reason: an exodus of some 342,000 workers from the labour force, as people gave up looking for work. On May 8th Mr Obama sent Congress a “to-do list”， asking it for tax incentives and mortgage refinancing in the hope of boosting private job creation. Yet for much of the past two years the biggest source of job losses has been the public sector。

巴拉克·奥巴马是否能够连任与美国经济的命运紧紧相连，而这两者在四月间都碰到了小小波折。从去年12月起至今年2月，平均每月增加了252,000个工作岗位，但这一增长速度可说是缓慢。今年3月，工资总支出上涨了154,000美元，而4月份仅上涨了115,000美元。失业率在四月份从8.2%降至8.1%，但原因并不光彩：大约342,000位劳动者中的一大批离开了劳动力市场，因为他们放弃了寻找工作。5月8日，奥巴马总统递给国会一张“清单”，希望借以刺激税收和减免贷款来促进私营企业创造更多的工作机会。然而，在过去的两年里，政府机构才是裁员最多的地方。

Government payrolls typically swell in economic recoveries, by 5.9% on average during the first 34 months after a recession has ended, according to data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Not this time, however: from June of 2009 government employment dropped by 2.7% (see chart). The 2.5m overall rise in employment since the downturn’s end corresponds to 3.1m new private jobs, less 600,000 lost government ones。

根据劳动统计局提供的数据，自经济大萧条结束至接下来经济复苏阶段的34个月，政府工资总支出明显增多了，平均每月增长5.9%。然而，这次不同：2009年6月以来，政府的雇佣率下降了2.7%(见图表)。本次萧条结束，总共新增250万个工作岗位，私营企业提供了310个工作岗位，而政府减少了不到60万个工作岗位。

The bloodletting has been concentrated at local level. Despite a drop of 52,000 over the past year, federal government employment is unchanged since mid-2009. The states, by contrast, have shed roughly 100,000 workers over that period, while local governments have cut over 500,000 jobs, most of them in education。

政府才是失业率居高不下的关键。且不论去年裁员了52,000人，联邦政府每年新雇员人数自2009年起一直没有改变。而各州政府在这一时期解雇了10万人，地方政府削减了超过50万个工作岗位，而这些岗位大部分来自教育部门。

Budget constraints are to blame. Most state and local governments are not allowed to borrow to cover shortfalls. So when tax revenues plummet, as they did during and after the recession, spending must fall in concert. Local governments, which rely heavily on property taxes to fund local schools, have been particularly hard hit by the prolonged slump in house values. Consequently, employment in public education is down by 266,000 since 2009. A “right-sizing” of state and local governments was certainly in order after the boom. Yet cuts in teaching staff may be unsustainable, since large classes are unpopular; and though it is too early to assess the cost to pupils, they could also prove damaging in the longer term。

预算管制是问题所在。大部分的州政府和地方政府是不允许借贷来弥补财政短缺的。因此，当税收骤然下降时，正如他们在经济萧条阶段和恢复阶段所使用的方法，支出必须随之缩减。地方政府很大程度上依靠房产税收拨款给学校，当房价长期低迷时，地方政府就会受到严重打击。因此，2009年至今，公立教育部门的工作岗位减少了226,000个。经济复苏后，州政府和地方政府自然会回到人手合适的状态。然而，教育职位的缩减可能不会持久，因为大班授课的方式是不受欢迎的；虽然现在评估对学生的这一投资还太早，但若长此以往，弊端会显现出来。

Things might have been worse. The 2009 stimulus package included roughly $140 billion in support for state and local governments, spread over two-and-a-half years. That figure covered between 30% and 40% of state shortfalls in the 2009-11 fiscal years, according to the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think-tank based in Washington, DC. Now, though, the stimulus tap has run dry. Worse, the federal government is increasingly a drag on state and local budgets, as Washington cuts its own spending。

事情也许会更糟。2009年的刺激计划包括1400亿拨款用于支持州政府和地方政府，已经实施了2年半。居位于华盛顿政府一智囊团预算与公共财产中心提供的数据，拨款弥补了09-11财政年州政府30%-40%的财政短缺。但是目前拨款已所剩无几。更糟的是，联邦政府受州政府和地方政府的影响越来越严重，位于华盛顿的联邦政府也在缩减开支。

The lean times should, however, end soon. Over half of the 50 states are forecast to end the current fiscal year with more money than expected, thanks to fatter tax collections as the economy recovers. Several price indices point to stabilising house values, which should buoy up property-tax revenues and education budgets。

依赖阶段依赖阶段应尽快结束。由于经济复苏带来了更丰厚的税收，50个州超过半数预计在本财政年结束时收入会超过预算所得。一些价格指数显示房价会更加稳定，这也保证了丰厚的地产税收和教育预算。

It may take time, though. State government payrolls rose by 1,000 in April, but local government employment dropped yet again, by 12,000. Government may soon contribute to recovery alongside the private sector; but perhaps not soon enough for Mr Obama。

但是，这可能需要时间。4月，州政府总工资支出上涨了1,000美元，而地方政府总工资支出再次下降，金额为12,000美元。政府可能很快能和私营企业一道为经济复苏做贡献，但也许对于奥巴马总统来说这速度还是不够快。