中国预算里的隐形赤字

Dream on, Athens. When Beijing presented its 2017 budget this week, the main concern from investors was that the government was not going to run a big enough deficit. 希腊人做梦也不敢想，中国政府本周发布2017年预算时，投资者的主要担忧竟是——政府的预算赤字不够大。

But a closer look at the spending plan reveals that China may have a couple of accounting tricks up its sleeve: its true deficit is likely to be quite a bit larger than the finance ministry claimed. 但更细致地阅读这份预算草案，就会发现中国政府偷偷运用了一些会计技巧。中国真正的赤字规模可能比财政部声称的数字大很多。

Before delving into the numbers, it is worth emphasising why a bigger deficit in China would actually be a good thing, both in the short term and the long term. 探究具体数字之前，我们有必要强调一下，为什么中国扩大财政赤字规模，无论从长期还是短期来看，其实是件好事。

This year, with exporters facing global headwinds and the domestic property market dipping, Chinese growth is bound to slow. The question is whether the government will be able to ensure that this slowdown is moderate and not sharp. 今年，中国出口部门在全球市场面临巨大压力，国内房地产市场也转冷，中国经济增长势必放缓。因此问题就成了政府能否确保经济放缓过程是温和的，而不会太过剧烈。

The weight of that task is going to fall on fiscal policy, because the central bank is unwilling to loosen monetary policy too much for fear of stoking inflation. Hence the disappointment among investors when the finance ministry announced that it was targeting a deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, just a touch higher than last year. More spending is needed to make up for the gaps left by weak exports and sluggish construction. And with low levels of public debt, China can also easily afford this. 由于央行担忧刺激通胀，不愿过多放松货币政策，因此这项任务会落在财政政策上。所以，当中国财政部宣布将预算赤字设为相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的1.5%之时，投资者颇为失望，这个水平仅比去年略高。中国需要更大的开支力度，才能填补出口走软、建设乏力造成的经济增长缺口。目前较低水平的公共债务水平，意味着中国能够负担得起更大的开支。

From a longer-term perspective, a bigger fiscal deficit is also a vital ingredient in the economic rebalancing that is required to keep Chinese growth on track. As Mark Williams with Capital Economics wrote this week: “Many inside and outside of government have agonised for years over what policy changes are needed to boost domestic demand. There is a straightforward answer: government should simply spend more itself.” 从长远来看，扩大财政赤字也是中国实现经济再平衡的一个关键手段之一，而再平衡则是维持中国经济增长不脱离正轨的必要措施。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的马克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)本周撰文称：“政府内部和外部的许多人，多年来一直在为需要作出哪些政策转变来推动内需而困扰。有一个直截了当的答案，就是政府自己应该花更多的钱。”

We can be thankful, then, that the government appears to have under-reported its spending plans. Its forecast deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP looks more like a 2.4 percent shortfall on closer inspection, according to Citigroup economists. 那么，对于政府在公布预算草案时似乎对赤字打了折扣的做法，我们应该心存谢意才对。花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家分析道，尽管中国政府宣布的预计赤字相当于GDP的1.5%，但经过更细致的研究，赤字将实际上相当于GDP的2.4%。

They highlighted two accounting oddities that explain this discrepancy. 这些经济学家们指出了两项反常规的会计操作，可以解释二者的差距。

First, excess revenue of Rmb270bn last year was plunked into a "fiscal stabilisation fund", allowing Beijing to leave it out of the 2011 accounts and count it as revenue this year. If counted as 2011 revenue, which it clearly was, this year's deficit would be higher by 0.5 percent of GDP. 第一，去年2700亿元人民币的额外财政收入，被划入“预算稳定调节基金”。这使得北京方面得以将其列在2011年财政收入之外，计入今年的收入。如果将这笔资金计入2011年的收入（显然应该如此），那么今年财政赤字规模将会增加GDP的0.5%。

Second, Rmb192bn of local spending was booked last year but will not actually happen until this year. Accounted for as 2017 expenditure, which it is, China's deficit would rise by a further 0.35 percent of GDP. 第二，计入去年支出的1920亿元人民币地方政府财政开支，实际上今年才会发生。如果计入2017年支出（显然应该如此），那么财政赤字还会再增加GDP的0.35%。

Citi's conclusion? That premier Wen Jiabao's forecast of 7.5 per cent GDP growth this year could prove conservative — as Chinese official forecasts generally have done in recent years. Citi says: “The proactive fiscal policy should be supportive of above 8 percent growth in 2017.” 花旗集团的结论是，温家宝总理对中国经济今年增长7.5%的预期，可能有些保守，近几年中国的官方预测通常如此。花旗集团表示：“积极的财政政策应当能在2017年支撑超过8%的经济增长。”

So rest assured, China has plenty of fiscal fire-power in reserve and is preparing to deploy more of it than the finance ministry would have you believe. 所以投资者可以放心了，中国有充足的财政火力，而且准备部署的火力规模比财政部愿意让你相信的更多。译者:何黎