教你打败巴菲特 自己做股神

可以用E.F. Hutton证券公司那句著名的广告语来形容沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)：当他开口说话时，人们总是洗耳恭听。

Warren Buffett is like the old commercial for E.F. Hutton. When he talks, people listen。

当他呼吁调高对富人的税收时，听众可能同意，也可能不同意。但他总能引起人们的关注。

When he calls for higher taxes on the rich, they may agree or not. But he gets their attention。

当他警告说衍生产品是金融业的大规模杀伤性武器时，人们会予以关注，但只是暂时的……然后就会忘得一干二净，直到衍生产品在数年后让经济崩溃。

When he warns that derivatives are weapons of financial mass destruction, they pay attention, briefly ... then forget all about it, until the derivatives blow up the economy a few years later。

当巴菲特像上月那样向美国银行(Bank of America)注资50亿美元时，他可以凭借一己之力引发股票的上扬行情，改变这只陷入困境的银行股的人气，甚至可能改变人们对整个经济的看法。

And when he steps in to write a $5 billion check to Bank of America, as he did last month, he can single-handedly spark a rally and a change of sentiment toward the beleaguered bank -- and maybe even the economy。

巴菲特先生拥有这种影响力并不奇怪。当华尔街的其他人都在犯错的时候，他总能保持正确。足以证明这一点是：完全凭借投资，他积累了大约500亿美元财富。

It's no mystery why Mr. Buffett has this kind of clout. He has made a career of being right when the rest of Wall Street was being wrong. And he has amassed an estimated $50 billion fortune, all of it from investing, to prove it。

但是，这可不是在观看体育比赛。你大可不必坐在看台上，目瞪口呆地盯着别人的战绩。你也许无法积累500亿美元的财富，但有许多方法可以让你成为自己的沃伦•巴菲特。

But this isn't like watching a sporting event. You don't just have to sit in the stands and gape at the exploits of others. You may not be able to build a $50 billion fortune, but there are plenty of ways you can be your own Warren Buffett。

1.还清你的信用卡欠款。

这可不是一句玩笑话。巴菲特的财富是多年稳步积累的成果。自20世纪60年代中期以来，他的伯克希尔口哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)每股账面价值的平均年增长率约为20%，考虑通货膨胀因素后约为16%。今天，大多数信用卡收取的利率都达到或超过这个水平，而且你要用税后收入来偿还利息。但是，有无数人还是继续每个月保持信用卡欠款。这意味着向你提供贷款的银行每个月从你这里赚取了相当于巴菲特水平的回报率。

Pay off your credit cards。

No kidding. Mr. Buffett's wealth is a triumph of steady compounding over many years. Since the mid-1960s, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown its book value per share by an average of about 20% a year -- or 16% a year after counting inflation.Today, most credit cards charge that, or more -- and you're paying the interest with after-tax dollars. But millions of people continue to carry a balance each month. That means your lender is earning Buffett-style returns -- from you!

2.充分利用公司的401(k)

养老金对等缴费计划。你的雇主每年根据你的缴费金额为你缴纳等额的养老金吗？即使不考虑减税额或投资回报，这种等额缴纳的养老金也能为你存入401(k)账户的资金带来100%的回报率。巴菲特先生，来打败我们吧！你那20%的回报率还差得远呢。真是令人难以置信，但许多员工就是白白错失了这么高的回报。

Take your company's 401(k) match。

Does your employer offer to match the first dollars you pay into your 401(k) each year? Matching dollars offer you a 100% return on the money you put in -- even before counting the tax break or the investment returns.Beat that, Mr. Buffett! His 20% doesn't even come close. Hard to believe, but many workers still pass this up。

3.获得一笔30年的按揭贷款。

你可以借到一笔利率为4.1%的30年期固定利率房屋贷款。这可是很划算的交易。今年夏天，伯克希尔•哈撒韦的一家子公司借了8亿美元，期限为30年，利率大约为5%。

Get a 30-year mortgage。

You can get a fixed-rate, 30-year home loan with an interest rate of 4.1%. That's a deal. This summer a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary borrowed $800 million for 30 years. The rate: around 5%。

4.购买康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)的股票。

石油巨头康菲公司目前的股价为每股67美元。巴菲特当年是以每股70美元的价格收购了该公司价值20亿美元的股权。他承认自己在2008年石油行业繁盛时期及股市崩盘前买进这些股票是犯了个大错。然而，他一直持有这些头寸。现在，康菲公司的股票估值看起来很便宜，仅相当于未来12个月预测收益的8倍，股息收益率近4%。

Buy ConocoPhillips stock。

Oil giant ConocoPhillips is trading at $67 a share. Mr. Buffett paid $70 a share for his $2 billion stake. He has admitted to making a blunder by loading up on this stock during the 2008 oil boom, and just before the stock-market crash. Still, he has held on to most of his position. Conoco today looks cheap at eight times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, with a near-4% dividend yield。

5.购买赛诺菲的股票。

巴菲特拥有这家法国制药公司大约2%的股权，该公司的产品包括睡眠辅助药物安必恩(Ambien)。他为该公司的每份美国存托凭证支付的价格为40美元。你现在则可以按35美元的价格买入。赛诺菲目前的估值便宜，仅相当于未来12个月预测收益的8倍，股息收益率为3.6%。

Buy stock in Sanofi。

Mr. Buffett owns about 2% of French drug maker Sanofi, whose products include sleep aid Ambien. He paid the equivalent of $40 per American depositary receipt (the U.S.-traded shares of an overseas company). You can get them for $35. Sanofi trades at a cheap eight times likely earnings over the next 12 months, with a dividend yield of 3.6%。

6.购买富国银行(Wells Fargo)的股票。

富国银行是巴菲特最爱的银行股。多年来他一直在增持这只股票，他对这家总部位于旧金山的金融机构的信心被证明是有道理的，因为它在金融危机中的表现远胜其他许多大型竞争对手。正因为如此，这家银行才能够以近乎白送的价格收购竞争对手Wachovia银行。

Buy Wells Fargo shares。

巴菲特在今年第二季度增持了富国银行的股权，当时，该股的平均价格为28美元。如今，受夏季市场暴跌行情影响，其股价只有24美元。这个价格仅略高于该股的账面价值，从历史指标来看，非常便宜。

Wells Fargo is Mr. Buffett's favorite bank. He has been loading up for years, and his confidence in the San Francisco-based financial institution proved justified when it withstood the financial crisis far better than many of its big competitors. Among the results: The bank was able to buy up rival Wachovia for a song。

Mr. Buffett was adding to his Wells Fargo stake in the second quarter, when shares averaged about $28. Today, thanks to the summer market slump, they're at $24. That's just a little over the bank's book value, and cheap by historical measures。

7.购买卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)的股票。

巴菲特减持了这家公司的股票，但仍保留了价值超过30亿美元的股权。他为该股支付的平均价格为每股33美元，但这是几年以前的事了。如今，你可以按每股34美元的价格买进卡夫食品。在考虑了通货膨胀因素后，你支付的价格实际上要低于巴菲特。

卡夫最近宣布计划将其北美食品杂货业务和全球零食业务分拆为两家公司，希望藉此来释放股东价值。(巴菲特支持这一举动。)此前，该公司于去年斥巨资收购了英国糖果公司吉百利(Cadbury)，这提高了卡夫在快速增长的新兴市场的占有率。

同时，这家公司的股息收益率为3.4%，看起来和它生产的三角牌巧克力(Toblerone)的味道一样好。卡夫的产品还包括：趣多多软曲奇(Chips Ahoy cookies)、Cheez Whiz奶酪和Oscar Mayer午餐肉。

Buy shares of Kraft Foods。

Mr. Buffett has shaved his position in this maker of Chips Ahoy cookies, Cheez Whiz and Oscar Mayer lunch meats, but he still retains a stake of more than $3 billion. He paid an average of $33 a share, but that was several years ago. Today, you can get shares of Kraft Foods for $34. After accounting for inflation, you're paying less than Mr. Buffett did。

Kraft recently announced plans to split its North American grocery and global snacks businesses into two companies, in the hope of unlocking shareholder value. (Mr. Buffett supports the move。) This follows last year's costly takeover of U.K. candy company Cadbury, which has boosted Kraft's presence in fast-growing emerging markets。

Meanwhile, the company's dividend yield, at 3.4%， looks as tasty as Toblerone。

8.购买美国合众银行(U.S. Bancorp)的股票。

按资产规模计算，总部位于明尼阿波利斯的美国合众银行是美国第六大银行，这是巴菲特喜欢的又一只金融股。(他持有的股权价值超过20亿美元。) 这家银行一直保持着从金融危机的阴影下复苏的态势：最近一个季度的收益增长了三分之一，因为该银行放出了更多贷款，而且坏账冲销大幅减少。

USB从今年开始大幅提高派息。巴菲特是以每股31美元的价格买入这些股权的。如今你可以按每股22美元的价格买入，仅相当于12个月预测收益的9倍。

Buy U.S. Bancorp stock。

Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, the country's sixth-largest bank by assets, is another financial stock Mr. Buffett likes. (His stake is valued at over $2 billion。) The bank has been recovering from the financial crisis: Latest quarterly earnings jumped by a third, as the bank lent more and its charge-offs tumbled。

USB has started ramping up dividends this year and buying back stock. Mr. Buffett paid $31 a share for his stake. You can get shares for $22, a mere nine times forecast 12-month earnings。

9.在家也能成为奥马哈先知。

任何时候只要你能找到一种方法让你获得超过20%的回报率，你就是打败巴菲特了。好吧，我这是在说傻话，果真如此吗？

举个例子来说：你可以花50美元买个适配器，然后替换掉你的座机，直接通过手机接入互联网。即使此举每年只能为你节省10美元，也是20%的收益率。(实际上它可能为你省下多得多的钱。)这样的省钱方式既无风险又不用纳税。

你会说，这点钱还不够塞牙缝的。那好吧，按照20%的收益率来算，每年节省10美元，40年后，就能省下74,000美元。如此看来，这还不算太傻。

Be the Oracle of Omaha at home。

Any time you can find a way to earn better than 20%， you're beating Mr. Buffett. OK, I'm being silly. Or am I?

An example: It will cost you $50 for an adapter to dump your landline and connect your phone to the Internet instead. Even if that saves you just $10 a year, that's 20%. (It will probably save you much more。) And money saved is both risk-free and exempt from taxes。

These sums are chickenfeed, you say? Save $10 a year, at 20%， and after 40 years you'd have $74,000. So maybe it's not so silly。

10.购买伯克希尔•哈撒韦的股票。

如果你不能打败他，就投靠他。伯克希尔•哈撒韦的B股对投资者来说比较容易负担得起，每股只要69美元，已经从今年春季接近90美元和2007年接近100美元的高点回落。它的估值不到12个月预测收益的15倍，从历史标准来看偏低，几乎和股市崩盘时期差不多。

Buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway。

If you can't beat him, join him. The more affordable Berkshire Hathaway 'B' shares cost just $69 -- down from nearly $90 this spring and a peak of nearly $100 back in 2007. They're less than 15 times forecast 12-month earnings -- low by historical standards, and nearly as low as they were during the stock-market crash。