政治风险仍将左右汇市

While 2016 was the year the unlikely became real, currency investors enter 2017 no better equipped to tell the difference between reality and illusion.

尽管2016年是一个不太可能的事情变成现实的年份，但在进入2017年之际，外汇投资者仍无法更好区分现实与假象。

Brexit and Trump made a mockery of assumptions, shredded investors’ best-laid plans and turned political risk analysts into the most in-demand advisers of the year.

英国退欧(Brexit)和特朗普是对假设的嘲弄，破坏了投资者精心设计的计划，并让政治风险分析师成了去年最抢手的顾问。

The two big themes of 2016 will feel palpable during the first quarter of 2017. Donald Trump takes the oath of office to become US president on January 20. By March’s end, UK prime minister Theresa May will have sent to the EU the letter that triggers the UK’s formal divorce proceedings, and revealed some element of her negotiating hand.

2017年第一季度，人们仍将明显感觉到2016年的这两大主题。1月20日，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)将宣誓就任美国总统。到3月底，英国首相特里萨?梅(Theresa May)将已向欧盟致信，触发英国的正式退欧程序，并显示她的谈判立场的一些元素。

All the same, neither of these “facts on the ground” will bring clarity to investors, even if their market behaviour in the tail-end of 2016 suggests they hope and expect otherwise.

尽管如此，这两个“既成事实”都不会让投资者拨开迷雾，即便他们在2016年底的市场行为似乎表明，他们希望并期待情况会变得明朗。

A “dollar exuberance” broke out post-election, says Peter Rosenstreich of the internet-based bank, Swissquote. Trump promises of fiscal policy and tax reform had the “near-magical effects” of convincing investors that monetary policy would end smoothly, global growth enhanced and corporate profits boosted.

互联网银行瑞讯(Swissquote)的彼得?罗森施特赖希(Peter Rosenstreich)表示，“美元繁荣”在美国选举后出现。特朗普承诺的财政政策和税收改革承诺产生了“近乎魔力般的效果”：让投资者相信货币政策将平稳收尾，全球增长将提速，企业利润将得到提振。

1. November 9: Donald Trump’s election victory spurs start of dollar rally

1、11月9日：唐纳德?特朗普胜选，开启美元涨势。

2. December 5: Supreme Court hearing into UK’s government’s Article 50 appeal adds to Brexit doubts, pushing sterling higher

2、12月5日：英国最高法院开始审理英国政府就触发《里斯本条约》第50条(Article 50)权限提起的上诉，这加剧了外界对于英国退欧的疑虑，促使英镑汇率上涨。

3. December 7: China’s reserves drop a further $70bn as central bank struggles to halt sliding value of renminbi

3、12月7日：中国外汇储备进一步缩减700亿美元，中国央行艰难阻止人民币贬值。

4. December 14: Dollar rally sustained by Fed rate rise

4、12月14日：美联储(Fed)加息维持了美元的涨势。

This is giving the US consumer a false sense of wealth and wellbeing, he believes, arguing that US data merely reflect a temporary upswing in a large cyclical downturn.

他认为，这给美国消费者带来了一种虚假的富有和幸福的感觉，他辩称，美国数据只是反映出一段大规模周期性低迷期间出现的暂时回升。

“We remain sceptical that President Trump will accomplish anything close to the miracle growth rhetoric he has been supplying,” says Mr Rosenstreich.

罗森施特赖希表示：“我们仍怀疑，特朗普总统能否实现他一直夸口的近乎奇迹般的增长承诺。”

The pound’s recent rally also suggests investors expect a clearer picture of Brexit to emerge early in 2017, fuelled by softer rhetoric from Mrs May and her ministers.

英镑最近的上涨也似乎表明，受到梅和她手下的部长级官员们较为柔和的言论的鼓舞，投资者预计英国退欧的前景将在2017年初变得更为明朗。

Yet according to Nomura’s foreign exchange strategist Jordan Rochester, Mrs May’s Brexit plan is likely to be “very vague, full of hope, but lacking in any concrete details to safeguard the government’s negotiation tactics”.

然而，野村证券(Nomura)外汇策略师策略师乔丹?罗切斯特(Jordan Rochester)表示，梅的退欧计划可能会“非常含糊，充满希望，但缺乏具体的细节来保障政府的谈判策略”。

For greater certainty, investors may well revert to what they have followed more closely in recent years — economic data and the utterances of central banks. This will be the case even if the limitations of monetary policy mean policymakers are supposedly passing responsibility for global growth to politicians.

要想获得更大确定性，投资者很有可能回到最近几年他们更密切关注的事情上：经济数据和央行的表态。即便货币政策的局限性意味着政策制定者是时候将全球增长的责任移交给政治人士，情况仍会如此。

Steven Saywell, BNP Paribas’s global head of foreign exchange strategy, says the dollar’s post-election rally of more than 11 per cent against the yen was built on Trump-fuelled expectations.

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)外汇策略全球主管斯蒂文?塞维尔(Steven Saywell)表示，美元兑日元汇率在美国大选后上涨逾11%，这基于特朗普引发的预期。

Contrast that with Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, and her upbeat assessment of the US economy that accompanied last month’s rate rise.

这与美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)的表态以及她在2016年12月加息后对美国经济的乐观评估形成对比。

“Inflation has picked up,” says Mr Saywell. “Even without Trump expectations, the dollar would be stronger.”

“通胀已上扬，”塞维尔表示，“即便没有特朗普引发的预期，美元也会走强。”

If the Fed is a better guide than Mr Trump for the dollar’s broad direction in 2017, what will determine the euro’s path — the European Central Bank or European elections?

如果说，就美元在2017年的基本走势而言，美联储是比特朗普更好的指引，那么决定欧元走势的因素会是什么？欧洲央行(ECB)还是欧洲选举？

The temptation for investors is to keep a close watch on the slew of 2017 European elections for further signs of the populist traits that secured victories for the Leave campaign in the UK referendum and Mr Trump in the US.

投资者也许将忍不住密切关注2017年欧洲的一系列选举，看有没有民粹主义情绪的更多迹象，这些情绪曾让退欧阵营在英国公投中获胜，也让特朗普赢得美国大选。

Yet as Derek Halpenny at MUFG points out, largely forgotten in the attention on Brexit and Trump were the actions of the ECB last month in increasing quantitative easing purchases.

然而，就像三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的德里克?赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)指出的那样，欧洲央行在2016年12月做出的扩大量化宽松(QE)购买规模的措施，在人们对英国退欧公投和特朗普的关注中基本上被忽视了。

These, he says, “brought about a revival in the divergence trade that will probably be the theme for the dollar, the euro and the yen in the first part of 2017”.

他表示，这些措施“带来了分化交易(divergence trade)的复苏，这或许会成为美元、欧元和日元在2017年上半年的主旋律”。

Mr Saywell agrees. “The euro hasn’t fallen as much against the dollar as the yen,” he says. “A lot will come down to the policy response of central banks.”

塞维尔认同这点。“欧元兑美元汇率的下跌幅度不及日元兑美元汇率，”他表示，“很多事情将取决于央行的政策回应。”

The ECB, he suspects, will taper monetary policy. While BNP Paribas forecasts the yen heading for ￥128 against the dollar, maybe even to ￥135, the bank expects the euro to drop to parity with the dollar but not much further.

他估计，欧洲央行将逐渐结束货币政策措施。尽管巴黎银行预测，日元兑美元汇率将跌向1美元兑128日元，甚至1美元兑135日元，但该行预测，欧元兑美元汇率将跌至1:1，但不会进一步大幅下跌。

“As the ECB exits QE, the market will rebound,” says Mr Saywell.

他表示：“随着欧洲央行退出量化宽松政策，市场将反弹。”

Still, the canny investor will doubtless keep up to date with all developments, political and economic, to chart the most trouble-free path through foreign exchange. As Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon says, 2017 has all the hallmarks of being a repeat of 1985 — loose fiscal policy, tax cuts, a hawkish Fed and a soaring dollar.

话虽如此，精明的投资者肯定会跟踪所有政治和经济事态，以求在外汇市场摸索出一条麻烦最少的道路。正如纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)策略师西蒙?德里克(Simon Derrick)所言，2017年具备让1985年重演的所有特点：宽松财政政策、减税、美联储鹰派立场和美元汇率飙升。

“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,” says Mr Derrick.

德里克表示：“美国企业的压力影响了美国国会，后来也影响了里根主政的白宫，导致美国放弃了强势美元政策。”

Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,” Mr Derrick says.

在特朗普主政时期，美国会否出现类似的政治反弹？德里克表示：“绝对会”。

This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.

这绝非2017年唯一一个政治和经济现实将影响投资选择的时刻。德里克警告称，另一个是中国。

In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by $70bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, ready to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.

2016年11月，中国央行(PBoC)消耗了700亿美元外汇储备，减持了美国国债，以阻止人民币进一步贬值。特朗普则站在背景中，准备重复他的指责：中国一直在故意削弱人民币汇率，以获得竞争好处。

“There is a reasonable chance China will rethink its currency policy,” says Mr Derrick. “It must be galling to be spending $70bn and at the same time to be called a currency manipulator. How that plays out next year will be fascinating.”

“中国有合理机会反思其汇率政策，”德里克表示，“花了700亿美元外汇储备，同时又被称作汇率操纵国，这肯定令人难堪。2017年这方面的事态将如何发展，将是一件扣人心弦的事。”