普京式"平衡",玩转俄罗斯

Liberals, to paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, are all alike; but conservatives are all conservative in their own way. While liberals insist on universal human rights and the pursuit of a globalised world, conservatives value national uniqueness, sovereignty and identity, defending their exceptionalism from a single, encroaching world order. 套用列夫托尔斯泰(Leo Tolstoy)的话说，自由派总是相似的，保守派却各有各的保守之处。自由派坚持倡导普世人权，追求一个全球化的世界；而保守派重视国家的独特性、主权和认同，面对咄咄逼人的单一世界秩序，努力捍卫本国优越主义。 During his third term as president, Vladimir Putin is starting to distinguish himself as a Russian conservative. Understanding this will have considerable benefit for those seeking clues to the country’s future. 在自己的第三个总统任期内，弗拉基米尔普京(Vladimir Putin)开始表现出俄罗斯保守派的特质。理解这一点，大大有助于判断俄罗斯未来的走向。 The swing towards conservative ideas is partly a response to what is happening in the world. As Francis Fukuyama has shown, it is the statist right, rather than the radical left, that has won the battle of ideas in the wake of the global financial crisis. But it is also in large part the result of their inherent popularity at home, and the unique relationship of the Russian masses to their leaders. 向保守主义思想的转变，一定程度上是对当今世界形势的反应。正如弗朗西斯福山(Francis Fukuyama)所证明的，本次全球金融危机之后在意识形态斗争中胜出的并非激进的左翼，而是奉行中央集权的右翼。但在很大程度上，这一转变也是因为保守主义思想在俄罗斯国内一向受到欢迎、以及俄罗斯民众与领导人之间的独特关系。 Russian conservatism can be traced to the time of the monarchy and is known by a simple formula: “Good tsar, bad elites.” It has always depended on giving the leader control in exchange for reining in the petty nobility. This was true of Ivan the Terrible and Joseph Stalin. It was true, too, of radical reformers such as Peter the Great and Vladimir Lenin, equally authoritarian but widely approved of because their target was the elite. 俄罗斯的保守主义可追溯至君主制时代，用一句简单的话来概括就是：“好沙皇，坏精英。”其一直以来的存在基础是将控制权交予领导人，以换取对小贵族的钳制。伊凡雷帝(Ivan the Terrible)和约瑟夫斯大林(Joseph Stalin)是如此，彼得大帝(Peter the Great)和弗拉基米尔列宁(Vladimir Lenin)等激进改革者也不例外——后两人的专制程度不比前两人逊色，却因为打击精英而备受认可。 One sees echoes in Mr Putin’s policies. In his first term, he cut the oligarchs down to size. Now he is chastising his own ruling group over petty corruption, symbolised by the firing of defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov after his ministry was embroiled in a corruption scandal. 普京的政策也是如此。首个任期内，他削弱了寡头阶层。如今，他正在围绕轻度腐败问题严厉整治自己的统治集团，其中标志性的事件是在国防部卷入腐败丑闻后将部长阿纳托利谢尔久科夫(Anatoly Serdyukov)免职。 Modern Russian conservatism is both anti-communist and anti-liberal. It is not the same as the US version, which values a small state. Here, conservatives value undivided political power, with economic power rooted in and subordinate to it. They value the traditions of established religion, sovereign foreign policy and the guarding of great power status. 现代的俄罗斯保守主义既反共产主义，也反自由主义，这与强调小政府的美国版保守主义不同。在俄罗斯，保守派看重的是独揽政治权力，而经济权力植根并从属于政治权力。他们重视国教传统、独立自主的外交政策和捍卫大国地位。 For his first 12 years in power, Mr Putin’s conservatism was tempered by the need to appeal to an influential liberal elite. But with the desertion of this class to the ranks of anti-government protesters since 2011, he is finally making his true views known. This should not be seen as winding back the clock, however. Russia is in transition from the pure totalitarianism of the Soviet era; this conservative moment represents a rethinking of what comes at the end of the transition. 在执政的最初12年里，由于需要吸引富有影响力的自由派精英，普京的保守主义思想受到抑制。但随着2011年以来这一阶层背离普京、加入反政府抗议者之列，普京终于开始展露出自己的真实想法。不过，这不应被视为倒退。俄罗斯正处于走出苏联时代纯极权主义的转型期；这一保守主义时刻代表着对转型结束时俄罗斯命运的反思。 Russia cannot return to the Soviet model other than on a symbolic level – such as reviving the Soviet anthem or socialist rhetoric. Likewise, we will not see the rebirth of the Tsarist empire with the Orthodox Christian tradition as the official ideology. Today, we are a multi-ethnic society with a growing Islamic population. 除了一些象征层面的调整——比如恢复使用苏联国歌或社会主义言论——俄罗斯不可能再回到苏联模式。类似地，我们也不会看到以东正教传统为官方意识形态的沙皇帝国重生。当今，俄罗斯是穆斯林人口不断增加的多民族社会。 It is also worth noting that, while liberals are a numerical minority, they are influential. The government is controlled by moderates, with Dmitry Medvedev as their head. The oligarchs, who by and large espouse liberal ideas, retain much power. 同样值得注意的是，尽管自由派在人数上占劣势，但他们仍具有不小的影响力。政府是由以德米特里梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)为首的温和派控制的。大体上拥护自由主义思想的寡头们也仍握有很大的权力。 If we put these facts together, Mr Putin’s presidency is pragmatic – conservative mainly in the sense that it does not share globalists’ optimism. It is not trying to guard an exhausted status quo. His ideas, by and large, do not transgress the limits of moderate western-type nation-building. 将这些事实汇聚在一起可以看出，普京的这一总统任期是奉行实用主义的——其保守之处主要在于它不认同全球主义者的乐观看法。它并不试图维持穷途末路的现状。普京的思想总体上并没有逾越温和的西方式国家建设的界限。 Mr Putin’s conservatism has been moulded by foreign pressure, symbolised by the passage in the US of the Magnitsky law, which creates a travel blacklist for certain Russian officials. It has been moulded from inside by the desertion of the middle class from the ranks of his supporters and the growth of a liberal protest movement. 普京的保守主义受到国外压力的影响，其中具有代表性的是美国通过的《马格尼茨基法案》(Magnitsky Act)，该法案设立了针对某些俄罗斯官员的旅行黑名单。在国内，影响则来自于中产阶级脱离普京支持者行列以及自由派抗议运动的发展壮大。 In the face of these challenges, Mr Putin will move in the direction of being a conservative moderniser at home and a realist abroad. He will insist on state sovereignty, distrust globalisation, limit liberalisation and keep democracy strictly within a sovereign, national framework. 面对这些挑战，普京的行动方向将是对内成为倡导现代化的保守主义者，对外成为现实主义者。他将坚持国家主权、怀疑全球化、限制自由化、将民主严格限制在独立自主的国家框架下。 The term “balance of power” is the key to understanding Mr Putin’s version of conservatism, which will define politics in his third and presumably fourth terms. He will pursue the national interest, regional and global power, protectionism and mercantilism. Having lost the cold war, Russia will try to revise the status quo using all available opportunities. “力量平衡”一词是理解普京式保守主义的关键，这一思想将是他第三和（很可能出现的）第四个任期内的政治基调。他将追求国家利益、地区和全球影响力、保护主义和重商主义。在输掉冷战后，俄罗斯将努力利用一切可能的机会改写现状。 The writer is chairman of the department of the sociology of international relations at Moscow State University 本文作者为莫斯科国立大学(Moscow State University)国际关系社会学系主任