The End of the Book?
Amazon, by far the largest bookseller in the country, reported on May 19 that it is now selling more books in its electronic Kindle format than in the old paper-and-ink format. That is remarkable, considering that the Kindle has only been around for four years. E-books now account for 14 percent of all book sales in the country and are increasing far faster than overall book sales. E-book sales are up 146 percent over last year, while hardback sales increased 6 percent and paperbacks decreased 8 percent.
Does this spell the doom of the physical book? Certainly not immediately, and perhaps not at all. What it does mean is that the book business will go through a transformation in the next decade or so more profound than any it has seen since Gutenberg introduced printing from moveable type in the 1450s.
Physical books will surely become much rarer in the marketplace. Mass market paperbacks, which have been declining for years anyway, will probably disappear, as will hardbacks for mysteries, thrillers, romance fiction, etc. Such books, which only rarely end up in permanent collections, either private or public, will probably only be available as e-books within a few years. Hardback and trade paperbacks for serious nonfiction and fiction will surely last longer. Perhaps it will become the mark of an author to reckon with that he or she is still published in hard copy.
As for children s books, who knows? Children s books are like dog food in that the purchasers are not the consumers, so the market is inherently strange.
For clues to the book s future, let s look at some examples of technological change and see what happened to the old technology.
One technology replaces another only because the new technology is better, cheaper, or both. The greater the difference, the sooner and more thoroughly the new technology replaces the old. Printing with moveable type on paper dramatically reduced the cost of producing a book compared with the old-fashioned ones handwritten on vellum, which comes from sheepskin. A Bible to be sure, a long book required vellum made from 300 sheepskins and countless man-hours of labor. Before printing arrived, a Bible cost more than a middle-class house. There were perhaps 50,000 books in all of Europe in 1450. By 1500 there were 10 million.
But while printing quickly caused the hand written book to die out, handwriting lingered on well into the 16th century. Very special books are still occasionally produced on vellum, but they are one-of-a-kind show pieces.
Sometimes a new technology doesn t drive the old one out, but only parts of it while forcing the rest to evolve. The movies were widely predicted to drive live theater out of the marketplace, but they didn t, because theater turned out to have qualities movies could not reproduce. Equally, TV was supposed to replace movies but, again, did not.
Movies did, however, fatally impact some parts of live theater. And while TV didn t kill movies, it did kill second-rate pictures, shorts, and cartoons.
Nor did TV kill radio. Comedy and drama shows all migrated to television. But because you can t drive a car and watch television at the same time, rush hour became radio s prime, while music, talk, and news radio greatly enlarged their audiences. Radio is today a very different business than in the late 1940s and a much larger one.
Sometimes old technology lingers for centuries because of its symbolic power. Mounted cavalry replaced the chariot on the battlefield around 1000 BC. But chariots maintained their place in parades and triumphs right up until the end of the Roman Empire 1,500 years later. The sword hasn t had a military function for a hundred years, but is still part of an officer s full-dress uniform, precisely because a sword always symbolized an officer and a gentleman.
Sometimes new technology is a little cranky at first. Television repairman was a common occupation in the 1950s, for instance. And so the old technology remains as a backup. Steamships captured the North Atlantic passenger business from sail in the 1840s because of its much greater speed. But steamships didn t lose their sails until the 1880s, because early marine engines had a nasty habit of breaking down. Until ships became large enough to mount two engines side by side, they needed to keep sails.
Then there is the fireplace. Central heating was present in every upper-and middle-class home by the second half of the 19th century. But functioning fireplaces remain to this day a powerful selling point in a house or apartment. I suspect the reason is a deep-rooted love of the fire. Fire was one of the earliest major technological advances for humankind, providing heat, protection, and cooked food . Human control of fire goes back far enough that evolution could have produced a genetic leaning towards fire as a central aspect of human life.
Books especially books the average person could afford haven t been around long enough to produce evolutionary change in humans. But they have a powerful hold on many people nonetheless, a hold extending far beyond their literary content. At their best, they are works of art and there is a tactilepleasure in books necessarily lost in e-book versions. The ability to quickly thumb through pages is also lost. And a room with books in it induces, at least in some, a feeling not dissimilar to that of a fire in the fireplace on a cold winter s night.
For these reasons I think physical books will have a longer existence as a commercial product than some currently predict. Like swords, books have symbolic power. Like fireplaces, they induce a sense of comfort and warmth. And, perhaps, similar to sails, they make a useful back-up for when the lights go out.
46. Authors still published in printed versions will be considered important ones.
47. Some people are still in favor of printed books because of the sense of touch they can provide.
48. The radio business has changed greatly and now attracts more listeners.
49. Contrary to many people s prediction of its death, the film industry survived.
50. Remarkable changes have taken place in the book business.
51. Old technology sometimes continues to exist because of its reliability.
52. The increase of e-book sales will force the book business to make changes not seen for centuries.
53. A new technology is unlikely to take the place of an old one without a clear advantage.
54. Paperbacks of popular literature are more likely to be replaced by e-books.
55. A house with a fireplace has a stronger appeal to buyers.
46.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：本文选自The American Magazine,The End of the Book?--By John Steele Gordon。对应D段末句。printed versions对应hard copy，be considered important ones对应become the mark to reckon。
47.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：对应N段第三句提到的tactile pleasure in books。
48.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：changed greatly对应a very different business，attracts more listeners对应enlarged their audience。
49.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：many people s prediction对应widely predicted。
50.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：这是对A段所描述的电子书在近几年内大幅增长的现象的概括。
51.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：对应L段第三句。continues to exist对应remain，reliability对应backup。
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：对应B段第三句。make changes对应go through a transformation，not seen for centuries是对该句后部分时间表达的概括。
53.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：对应F段第一句。a clear advantage岁对better, cheaper or both的概括。take the place of对应replace。
54.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：完全对应C段第二句。
55.
ANSWER 答案
四级阅读长篇阅读解析：对应M段第三句。has a stronger appeal to buyers对应a powerful selling point。