Section B
Directions: In this section, you are going to read a passage with ten statements attached to it. Each statement contains information given in one of the paragraphs. Identify the paragraph from which the information is derived. You may choose a paragraph more than once. Each paragraph is marked with a letter. Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet 2.
Into the Unknown
The world has never seen population ageing before. Can it cope?
[A] Until the early 1990s nobody much thought about whole populations getting older. The UN had the foresight to convene a world assembly on ageing back in 1982, but that came and went. By 1994 the World Bank had noticed that something big was happening. In a report entitled Averting the Old Age Crisis , it argued that pension arrangements in most countries were unsustainable.
[B] For the next ten years a succession of books, mainly by Americans, sounded the alarm. They had titles like Young Old, Gray Dawn and The Coming Generational Storm, and their message was blunt: health-care systems were heading for the rocks, pensioners were taking young people to the cleaners, and soon there would be intergenerational warfare.
[C] Since then the debate has become less emotional, not least because a lot more is known about the subject. Books, conferences and research papers have multiplied. International organisations such as the OECD and the EU issue regular reports. Population ageing is on every agenda, from G8 economic conferences to NATO summits. The World Economic Forum plans to consider the future of pensions and health care at its prestigious Davos conference early next year. The media, including this newspaper, are giving the subject extensive coverage.
[D ] Whether all that attention has translated into sufficient action is another question. Governments in rich countries now accept that their pension and health-care promises will soon become unaffordable, and many of them have embarked on reforms, but so far only timidly. That is not surprising: politicians with an eye on the next election will hardly rush to introduce unpopular measures that may not bear fruit for years, perhaps decades.
[E ] The outline of the changes needed is clear. To avoid fiscameltdown, public pensions and health-care provision will have to be reined back severely and taxes may have to go up. By far the most effective method to restrain pension spending is to give people the opportunity to work longer, because it increases tax revenues and reduces spending on pensions at the same time. It may even keep them alive longer. John Rother, the AARPs head of policy and strategy, points to studies showing that other things being equal, people who remain at work have lower death rates than their retired peers.
[F] Younger people today mostly accept that they will have to work for longer and that their pensions will be less generous. Employers still need to be persuaded that older workers are worth holding on to. That may be because they have had plenty of younger ones to choose from, partly thanks to the post-war baby-boom and partly because over the past few decades many more women have entered the labour force, increasing employers choice. But the reservoir of women able and willing to take up paid work is running low, and the baby-boomers are going grey.
[G] In many countries immigrants have been filling such gaps in the labour force as have already emerged . Immigration in the developed world is the highest it has ever been, and it is making a useful difference. In still-fertile America it currently accounts for about 40% of total population growth, and in fast-ageing western Europe for about 90%.
[H] On the face of it, it seems the perfect solution. Many developing countries have lots of young people in need of jobs; many rich countries need helping hands that will boost tax revenues and keep up economic growth. But over the next few decades labour forces in rich countries are set to shrink so much that inflows of immigrants would have to increase enormously to compensate: to at least twice their current size in western Europes most youthful countries, and three times in the older ones. Japan would need a large multiple of the few immigrants it has at present. Public opinion polls show that people in most rich countries already think that immigration is too high. Further big increases would be politically unfeasible.
[I] To tackle the problem of ageing populations at its root, old countries would have to rejuvenate themselves by having more of their own children. A number of them have tried, some more successfully than
others. But it is not a simple matter of offering financial incentives or providing more child care. Modern urban life in rich countries is not well adapted to large families. Women find it hard to combine family and career. They often compromise by having just one child.
[J] And if fertility in ageing countries does not pick up? It will not be the end of the world, at least not for quite a while yet, but the world will slowly become a different place. Older societies may be less innovative and more strongly disinclined to take risks than younger ones. By 2025 at the latest, about half the voters in America and most of those in western European countries will be over 50and older people turn out to vote in much greater number than younger ones. Academic studies have found no evidence so far that older voters have used their power at the ballot box to push for policies that specifically benefit them, though if in future there are many more of them they might start doing so.
[K] Nor is there any sign of the intergenerational warfare predicted in the 1990s. After all, older people themselves mostly have families. In a recent study of parents and grown-up children in 11 European countries, Karsten Hank of Mannheim University found that 85% of them lived within 25km of each other and the majority of them were in touch at least once a week.
[L] Even so, the shift in the centre of gravity to older age groups is bound to have a profound effect on societies, not just economically and politically but in all sorts of other ways too. Richard Jackson and Neil Howe of Americas CSIS, in a thoughtful book called The Graying of the Great Powers, argue that, among other things, the ageing of the developed countries will have a number of serious security implications.
[M] For example, the shortage of young adults is likely to make countries more reluctant to commit the few they have to military service. In the decades to 2050, America will find itself playing an ever-increasing role in the developed worlds defence effort. Because Americas population will still be growing when that of most other developed countries is shrinking, America will be the only developed country that still matters geopoliticallyi 地 缘政治上).
Ask me in 2020
[ N] There is little that can be done to stop population ageing, so the world will have to live with it. But some of the consequences can be alleviated. Many experts now believe that given the right policies, the effects, though grave, need not be catastrophic. Most countries have recognised the need to do something and are beginning to act.
[ O] But even then there is no guarantee that their efforts will work. What is happening now is historically unprecedented. Ronald Lee, director of the Centre on the Economics and Demography of Ageing at the University of California, Berkeley, puts it briefly and clearly: We dont really know what population ageing will be like, because nobody has done it yet.
46. Employers should realise it is important to keep older workers in the workforce.
47. A recent study found that most old people in some European countries had regular weekly contact with their adult children.
48. Few governments in rich countries have launched bold reforms to tackle the problem of population ageing.
49. In a report published some 20 years ago, the sustainability of old age pension systems in most countries was called into doubt.
50. Countries that have a shortage of young adults will be less willing to send them to war.
51. One-child families are more common in ageing societies due to the stress of urban life and the difficulties of balancing family and career.
52. A series of books, mostly authored by Americans, warned of conflicts between the older and younger generations.
53. Compared with younger ones, older societies tend to be less innovative and take fewer risks.
54. The best solution to the pension crisis is to postpone the retirement age.
55. Immigration as a means to boost the shrinking labour force may meet with resistance in some rich countries.
Section B
46. [F]。题干意为,雇主们应该意识到留住老龄员工很重要。注意抓住题干中的关键词employers和older workers。文章段落中,谈及雇主和老龄员工关系的内容在[F]段出现,该段第二句提到,我们仍需说服雇 主们继续雇用老龄员工是值得的。由此可知,题干是对原文的同义转述,故答案为[F]。
47. [K]。题干意为,最近的一项研究发现,在一些欧洲国家,大多数的老年人每周都会联系他们的成年子女。 注意抓住题干中的关键词a recent study, European countries和adult children。文章段落中,有关欧洲国家老人 及其成年子女的研究的内容在[K]段出现,该段第三句提到,在最近的一项关于11个欧洲国家的父母及其
成年子女的研究中,他们中的大多数至少每周都会联系一次。由此可知,题干是对原文的同义转述, 故答案为[K ]。题干中的 adult children对应原文中的 grown-up children,题干中的 had regular weekly contact 对应原文中的 were in touch at least once a week,同时还用 some European countries替代 了 原文中的 11 European countries。
48. [D]。题干意为,很少有发达国家的政府开展大胆的改革去解决人口老龄化的问题。注意抓住题干中的关 键词governments in rich countries和reforms。文章段落中,谈及发达国家政府和改革的内容在[D]段出现, 该段第二句提到,发达国家的政府已经承认自己很快就会无法负担其退休金,无法兑现医疗保障承诺,许 多国家也已开始着手改革,但迄今为止都是畏首畏尾的改革。由此可知,题干是对原文的同义转述,故答
案为[D]。
49. [A]。题干意为,大概20年前发表的一份报告中指出,大多数国家的养老金系统的可持续性受到质疑。注 意抓住题干中的关键词20 years ago, a report和old age pension。文章段落中,谈及质疑养老金报告的内容在 文章第一段出现,该段最后两句中提到,到1994年,它在一份题为避免老龄化危机的报告中指出, 大多数国家的养老金计划无法维持下去。由此可知,题干是对原文的同义转述,故答案为[A]。此处需要注 意的是题干提到了20 years ago,数字是浏览信息时需要注意的重要信息,此处为时间概念,快速浏览涉及 时间的段落,可较快地做出解答。
50. [M]。题干意为,缺少年轻人的国家比较不愿意将年轻人送往战场。注意抓住题干中的关键词a shortage of young adults和war。文章段落中,谈及缺少年轻人的内容在[M]段出现,该段首句提到,缺少年轻人可能会 使国家不愿意将仅有的年轻人送去服兵役。由此可知,题干是对原文的同义转述,故答案为[M]。题干中 的less willing和原文中reluctant相对应。
51. [I]。题干意为,由于城市生活的压力和平衡家庭与工作的困难,独生子女家庭在老龄化社会中变得更为 普遍。注意抓住题干中的关键词one-child families, urban life和family and career。文章段落中,谈及独生子女 家庭、城市生活以及家庭和工作的内容在[I]段出现,该段最后三句提到,发达国家的现代都市生活并不 适合大家庭。女性发现她们很难平衡家庭和工作的关系。她们往往采用折中的方法,即只生一个孩子。由 此可知,题干是对原文内容的概括,属于同义转述的范畴,故答案为[I]。
52. [B]。题干意为,主要由美国人撰写的一系列图书对老一辈和年轻一代将发生冲突提出了警告。注意抓住 题干中的关键词a series of books, mostly authored by Americans和warned。文章段落中,谈及美国人的著作 的内容在[B]段出现,该段第一句提到,主要由美国人撰写的一系列图书给全世界敲响了警钟。文章之后 接着说明了这些著作所阐述的问题:在退休金问题上新老两代人的冲突。由此可见,题干对原文做了同义 改写,故答案为[B]。题干中的warned和原文中的sounded the alarm对应。
53. [J]。题干意为,与年轻的社会相比,老龄化社会倾向于缺乏创新精神,较少去冒险。注意抓住题干中的关 键词compared, innovative和risks。文章段落中,对两代人在创新精神和冒险方面做对比的内容在[J]段出 现,该段第三句提到,与年轻的社会相比,老龄化社会可能会缺乏创新精神,也不愿意冒险。由此可知,答 案为[J]。题干中的take fewer risks对应原文中的disinclined to take risks。
54. [E]。题干意为,解决养老金危机的最好方法是推迟退休年龄。注意抓住题干中的关键词solution, pension crisis和retirement age。文章段落中,谈及解决养老金危机方法的内容在[E]段出现,该段第三句提到,到目 前为止,抑制养老金支出最有效的方法是延长人们的工作年限,由此可知,题干是对原文的同义改 写,即延长工作年限改写为推迟退休年龄,故答案为[E]。题干中的the best solution对应原文中的the most effective method。
55. [H]。题干意为,在一些发达国家,把移民当做改善劳动力短缺状况的一种手段可能会遭遇抵制。注意抓住 题干中的关键词immigration, shrinking labour force和resistance。文章段落中,谈及移民和劳动力短缺的有 [G]段和[H]段,但谈到抵制移民问题的仅有[H]段,该段最后两句提出,民意调查显示,多数富裕国家的 人认为移民的数量已经够多了,进一步的增长在政治上是行不通的。由此可知,题干是对原文的进一步推 断,故答案为[H]。此处需要注意,因原文段落之间具有连续性,对同一话题的阐述可能涉及两个或多个段 落,所以在做题时一定要把题干的信息看全,排除干扰段落,从而确定最终答案。
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