Much of thelanguage used to describe monetary policy, such as steering the economy to asoft landing or a touch on the brakes, makes itself sound like a precisescience. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interestrates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags beforepolicy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence there is an analogy thatlikens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackenedwindscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel. Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had muchto boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economiesfell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, beforerising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digitrates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that Americas inflationrate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and isexpected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japaninflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at theend of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years,inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America. Economists have been particularly surprised by favourable inflationfigures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggestthat both economies, and especially Americas, have littleproductive slack. Americas capacity utilisation, for example, hit historically high levelsearlier this year, and its jobless rate has fallen below mostestimates of the natural rate of unemployment-the rate below which inflationhas taken off on the past. Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is,unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerfulstructural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that werebased upon the historical link between growth and inflation. 67. From the passage we learn that ________. (A)there is a definite relationship between inflation and interestrates (B)economy will always follow certain models (C)the economic situation is better than expected (D)economists had foreseen the present economic situation 68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE? (A)Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car. (B)An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation. (C)A high unemployment rate will result from inflation. (D)Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy. 69. The sentence This is no flash in the pan means that ________. (A)the low inflation rate will last for some time (B)the inflation rate will soon rise (C)the inflation will disappear quickly (D)there is no inflation at present 70. The passage shows that the author is ________ the presentsituation. (A)critical of (B)puzzled by (C)disappointed at (D)amazed at 答案及试题解析 67.(C)意为:经济形势比预想的好。 第三段指出,它(指:平均通货膨胀率)也比多数预测者预测的低。《经济学家》杂志每月调查的经济学家小组称:1995年美国平均通货膨胀率会达3.5%左右,但是,8月份它实际降至2.6%,全年也不过3%左右;在英国和日本,平均通货膨胀率比上年底预测的低0.5个百分点(或:半个百分点)。而且,在过去几年里一直是如此(this is no flash in the pan):在英美两国,平均通货膨胀率一直比预测的要低。 A意为:通货膨胀与利率有直接关系。第一段第二句明确指出:利率与通货膨胀间的关系是不确定的。 B意为:经济(的运行)总是遵循某些模式(或:规律)。第一段指出,使经济软着陆使经济刹车,人们经常使用这样的词来形容货币政策的作用,听起来它似乎是一门严谨的学问。事实远非如此(Nothing could be further from the truth.它根本就不是一门严谨精确的学问)。下文从持续低的通货膨胀率的意外的形势来说明了经济运行难以预测。 D意为:经济学家们预测到了目前的经济形势。相反,正如第四段第一句所指出的,经济学家对目前有利的通货膨胀率始料未及。另请参阅上文分析。 68.(B)意为:极低的失业率会导向通货膨胀。 第四段指出,从传统的(衡量)标准来看,英美两国(特别是美国)的经济生产并没有滑坡(productive slack),例如:美国的设备(能力)利用率(capacity utilisation)今年初达到历史最高水平,其失业率已低于多数正常失业率所允许的数字-过去认为:失业率低于正常失业率时通货膨胀率就开始上升(take off)。 A意为:制定货币政策如同开车。根据第一段第四、五句,在政策的变化对经济起实际作用之前,会有很长而难以确定的(variable)时间差(lag意为:滞后性)。所以,许多人把货币政策实施过程比作驾驶一辆遮住挡风玻璃、后视镜已断裂、方向盘有毛病的汽车。换言之,他们认为,货币政策的制定和实施有很大程度的不可预测性或盲目性。可见,A表达的意思不确切。 C意为:通货膨胀导致高失业率。注意,在这里,inflation一词前没有修饰词,际上,过低的失业率会导致通货膨胀率的上升。参阅上文分析。 D意为:利率对经济有直接而迅速的影响。参阅上文分析。 69.(A)a flash in the pan意为:昙花一现,偶然出现的情况。 参阅第67题题解。 (B)、(C)、(D)均不对。 70.(D)意为:对感到惊奇,认为不可思议。 本文主要评述了目前良好的经济形势,它是由持续低的通货膨胀率造成的,是始料未及的。作者强调了目前形势的始料不及的一面(尤其是第二、三、四段的描述)。 A意为:批评。 B意为:因感到困惑(不解)。 C意为:对感到失望。 翻译句子 1、This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years,inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America. [参考译文]这不是在很长时间里仅有的一次短暂成功;在过去的几年里,英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预期水平。 [结构剖析]这是一个并列句,前后用分号隔开两个子句,是递进关系。第一句话中,no 可以用 not a 代替。后面一个句子中 inflation 是主语,使用了被动语态的现在完成时态。lower 是表语, than expected 和 in Britain and America, 以及前面的 over the pastcouple of years 都是介词短语作状语。 [阅读重点]首先应该注意到那个分号,可以把分号前后分别作为一个简单句单独对待。另外在后面一个句子中,应该抓住 inflation has been lower这个基本结构(被动语态,现在完成时态)。flash in the pan 是习语,意思是 a sudden success that will not be repeated, 接近汉语中的昙花一现。 2、The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a littledefective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the worldhave upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link betweengrowth and inflation. [参考译文]很不幸,这最令人震惊的解释有一点缺陷。一些经济学家认为世界经济结构的强有力的变化已经结束了那个以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史关联为基础的旧的经济模式。 [结构剖析]在第一个句子里面,主干是 explanation is a little defective. 这是一个主语+系动词+表语结构。副词 unfortunately 是插入语,作状语。第二个句子的主干并不复杂: economists argue that,代词 that 后面是宾语从句。这个宾语从句的基本结构为 structural changes have upended models,其中 structural changes是主语,have upended 是现在完成时态的谓语,models 是宾语。这个宾语 models 后面是一个 that 引导的限定性定语从句,修饰 models. [阅读重点]第一个句子相对比较简单。第二个句子看着很长,但是只要明确了句子的主干,就很容易把整个句子看明白。可以先甩掉宾语从句中的那个定语从句(that were based upon the historical link between growth andinflation),这样这个句子结构就显得简单多了。然后再接这个定语从句,整句的意思就浮出水面了。另外注意 upend 一词由动词短语end up衍生而来,意为结束,推翻。 补充难句翻译 1、Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such assteering the economy to a soft landing of a touch on the brakes,makes itsound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. [参考译文]有很多用于描述货币政策的词汇,例如轻踩刹车以操纵经济软着陆,使货币政策听起来像是一门精确的科学。没有什么比这更远离实际情况的了。 [结构剖析]在第一个句子中,其主干为Muchof the language, makes it sound like。used to describe monetary policy是用于修饰language的定语,后面的suchas steering the economy to a soft landing of a touch on the brakes是对前面的language进行进一步说明。第二个句子是一个简单句。 [阅读重点]如上所述的句子主干被确定之后,句子就不难理解了。为了简化这个句子以便于理解,可以先把such as引导的部分忽略不看,那样整个句子就比较好掌握了。注意make it sound like a precise science当中it指代前面提到的monetarypolicy. 2、Hence theanalogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with ablackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel. [参考译文]因此这样的类比(就如同)把执行货币政策比作驾驶着一辆涂黑了挡风玻璃,打碎了后视镜,并且方向盘无法正常工作的汽车。 [结构剖析]这句话承接前面陈述的原因。hence后面只是一个名词词组,中心词是the analogy,后面that引导定语从句修饰前面的analogy with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearviewand a faulty steering wheel是介词词组修饰前面的名词car.注意此句没有谓语动词,只是一个名词性的短语。 [阅读重点]理解这句话的关键在于hence的用法。hence的意思是for thisreason,因此,所以,主要用于书面语,是副词,可以连接一个完整的句子,也可以只跟一个名词。例如:Baby found a pot of paint,hence all the markson the wall.另外liken A to B意思是把A与B相比,把A比作B. 3、Economistshave been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain andthe United States, since conentional measures suggest that both economies, andespecially Americas, have little productive slack. [参考译文]经济学家们对英国和美国的有利的通货膨胀数据尤其感到惊讶,因为传统的计量方法显示两国的经济,特别是美国的经济,几乎没有生产萧条的时候。 [结构剖析]这是一个主从复合句,连词since连接了两句子。主句的主干是Economistshave beensurprised by。原因状语从句的主干是conventional measures suggest that,代词that引导了宾语从句作为suggest的宾语。在这个宾语从句中,andespecially Americas相当于especially Americas economy,是前面主语both economies的同位语,用于强调美国经济。 [阅读重点]这里应该首先注意到since这个连词,然后分别理解两个句子,再把它们放在一起,这个句子的意思就迎刃而解了。另外注意suggest不是建议的意思,而应该是显示,指示。 语言点详解 1. monetary货币的 [大纲词汇]monetary a.金融的,货币的 [经典例句] The newmonetary policy will help revitalize the economy. 2. steering sth to引导 [大纲词汇] steerv.驾驶,掌握 [经典例句] Thereceptionist steered her to the meeting room. 3. soft landing软着陆 4. a touch on thebrakes踩刹车 [大纲词汇] braken./v制动(器),刹车,闸 5. precise精确的 [大纲词汇] precisea.精确的,准确的 [经典例句] Hefinished the task by following his precise instructions. 6. be further fromthe truth离真理更远了 [大纲词汇] furtherad./a.更远(的),更往前(的);进一步(的)further from(far from)的比较级,表示离更远 [经典例句]If youfollow this direction,you will be further from your destination. 7. long, variablelags长期,多变的滞后状况 [大纲词汇]lag n./.落后(于),滞后(于)variablea.易变的;可变的,变量的;n.变量 8. analogy类比 [大纲词汇] analogyn比拟,类比analog/analogue n.类似物;模拟 [经典例句]I see noanalogy between your problems and mine. 9. liken把比作 [扩充词汇] likenv.把比作(to) [经典例句] Helikens the archeologist to detective searching for ancient clues. 10. conduct管理方式 [大纲词汇] conductn.行为,品行,举动v.引导,带领;处理,管理;指挥(乐队);传导,传(热,电等) [经典例句]Hisconduct of the business was very successful. 11. windscreen(汽车上的)挡风玻璃 12. rearview(车辆上的)后视镜 13. faulty有毛病的 [大纲词汇] faultya.有缺点的,有错误的fault n.过失,过错;缺点,毛病 [经典例句]Theaccident was owing to the faulty design of the car. 14. steering wheel(汽车上的)方向盘 15. boast about夸耀 [大纲词汇] boastv.(of,about)自夸,夸耀;n.自夸,大话 [经典例句] Heboasted to us about the new car he purchased lately. 16. of late最近以来 [扩充词汇]of late最近以来 [经典例句]Helooked very tired of late 17. inflation通货膨胀 [大纲词汇]inflation n.通货膨胀 [经典例句] Newpolicies were made to curb inflation. 18. double-digit两位数 19. forecaster预测者 [大纲词汇]forecast v./n.预测,预报 [衍生词汇]forecaster n.天气预报员;(经济形式的预测者) [经典例句] Heworks as a business forecaster. 20. predict预测 [大纲词汇] predictv.预测,预言,预告 [经典例句]It didsnow in the afternoon as he predicted. 21.panel专门小组 [大纲词汇] paneln.面,板;控制板,仪表盘;专门小组 [经典例句] Thepanel of experts decided to meet on Monday. 22. poll民意测验 [大纲词汇] poll n.民意测验;(pl.)政治选举,大选;v.对一进行民意测验;获得选票 [经典例句] TheRepublican candidate won a bigger margin in the latest poll. 23. There is noflash in the pan.情况并未发生逆转。 [扩充词汇] flash来回的转换;pan平底锅 24. favourable有利的 [大纲词汇]favourable/ favorable a.赞许的,有利的,顺利的 [词汇比较]favorite/favourite a.最喜欢的,中意的注意;两词同是favor的衍生词汇,但意思不同,注意区别。 [经典例句] Thesituation will develop in the direction favorable to his rivals. 25. productiveslack生产萧条 [大纲词汇] slacka.懈怠的,懒散的,松弛的,不紧的;萧条的;n.淡季,萧条;[pl.]便裤,运动裤 [经典例句] Thereis a certain amount of slack in the car industry at the moment. 26. utilisation利用 [大纲词汇]utilization / untilization n.利用utilize/utilise v.利用utility n.有用,效用 [经典例句」Theutilisation of solar energy has partly solved environmental problems in thisarea. 27. take off开始 [扩充词义]take off开始,开始流行 [经典例句]Thedesign first took off in American colleges. 25. thrilling令人震惊的 [大纲词汇] thrilln.令人激动的事;v.使激动,使兴奋;使毛骨谏然 [衍生词汇]thrillinga.令人震惊的,令人激动的 [经典例句] Thestory has a thrilling climax at the end. 29. defective有缺陷的 [大纲词汇]defectn.缺点,缺陷 [衍生词汇]defective a.有缺陷的 [经典例句] Hereturned the defective goods to the salesman 30. upend颠倒 [扩充词汇] upendv.颠倒,使倒立,倒放;打倒,推翻 [经典例句]Heupended the wine bottle over his glass,but only a drop ortwo ran out. 31. foresee预见 [大纲词汇] foreseev.预见,预知 [经典例句] Thecaptain foresaw the danger ahead. 32. bo comparableto可比较的 [大纲词汇]comparable a.(with,to)可比较的,比得上的 [经典例句] Thedinner was comparable to the best French cooking. 33. be puzzled by迷惑 [大纲词汇] puzzlev.(使)迷惑,(使)为难;n.难题,谜,迷惑 [经典例句] We areall puzzled by his abnormal behavior. 34. be amazed at对感到惊讶 [大纲词汇] amazev.使惊愕,使惊奇,是惊叹 [经典例句] I wasamazed at the news. 全文翻译 很多用来描述货币政策的词,如引导经济软着陆,触动经济刹车,听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实远非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系难以确定。在政策改变对经济产生影响前会有一段较长时间且变化不定的后滞期。因此,才会有人将货币政策的指导比做是驾驶一辆带有黑色挡风玻璃、后视镜破碎及方向盘失灵的汽车。 尽管有这么多不利因素,中央银行家们似乎对近来的形势有了不少值得夸耀的东西。西方七大工业国去年的平均通货膨胀率降至仅2.3%,接近30年来的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。这远远低于许多国家在70年代和80年代早期经历的两位数的膨胀率。 这也低于许多预测者预测的数字。1994年底,每月接受《经济学家》意见调查的一组经济学家指出,美国在1995年的平均通货膨胀率将达到3.5%。实际上,8月份就降到了2.6%。而且有望达到全年平均仅为3%。去年年底,英国和日本的通货膨胀率实际上比预测的要低半个百分点。这不是昙花一现。在过去几年里,英国和美国的通货膨胀率始终低于预测水平。 经济学家对英美两国有利的通胀率感到特别诧异,因为传统的计量方法表明两国经济,特别是美国经济几乎没有生产萧条的时候。比如,美国的生产力利用率在今年前段时间达到了历史最高水平,失业率(8月份为5.6%)已降到低于对自然失业率的大多数估测-过去,当比率低于自然失业率时,通货膨胀率早已迅速上升。 为何通货膨胀如此的和缓?可惜的是,这最令人震惊的解释有一点缺陷。一些经济学家认为,世界经济结构强有力的变化已经推翻了那个以经济增长和通货膨胀的历史上相互关联为基础的旧的经济模式。
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