31. In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from
Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will
increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation
that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years,
together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee
consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age.
For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged
over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as
well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate
greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee
and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in
coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the
value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee
consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years,
then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase
in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more
opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second,
assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario
reflects the facts, the firms recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola
consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of
the studies. Moreover, while the phrase studies suggest may appear to lend credibility
to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in
the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early
Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we
would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need
more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.
上一篇: GMAT考试写作例文224篇连载(三六)
下一篇: GMAT:作文5.5分心经
牛津版一年级英语上册Unit 2 Good morning 教案
一年级英语上册教案Unit1 My classroom第一课时
沪教版小学英语一年级下册教案unit1课时1
上海牛津版一年级英语Unit2 Small animals第四课时教案
上海牛津版一年级英语Unit7 My family教案
沪教牛津版小学英语一年级上册 Unit3 period1教案
一年级英语上册教案 Unit 1 Period 1
一年级英语上册教案 Unit 1 第二课时
一年级英语教案Module1 unit6 Mid-Autumn Festival
上海牛津版一年级英语下册Unit2 Small animals教案
牛津版一年级英语上册教案Unit4 My bag第一课时
苏教版牛津小学一年级英语教案Unit1 What`s your name
苏教版小学一年级英语下册Unit5 On the road教案
牛津版小学一年级英语上册Unit1 Hello教案
上海牛津版一年级英语下册Unit3 Colours教案(1)
一年级英语下册Unit2 Small animals第三课时教案
沪教版小学英语一年级下册教案unit1课时3
一年级英语Module1 unit6 Mid-Autumn Festival教案
沪教牛津版小学英语一年级上册 Unit 3 第二课时教案
上海版牛津一年级英语教案Unit8 Playtime(总五课时)