107. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells gourmet food items from various countries.
A local wine store made an interesting discovery last month: it sold more French than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of French accordion music, but it sold more Italian than French wine on days when Italian songs were played. Therefore, I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale is going on. By this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the wine store did, and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we should stock at any given time.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
As a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be played during the period food items from that country are on sale. The basis for this proposal is the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that country was played. The managers proposal is questionable for several reasons.
First, the manager assumes that the sequence of sales experienced by the wine store reflects a general causal pattern. However, there is little evidence to support this assumption. While perhaps indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country. To establish a causal connection between these events it would be necessary to examine and eliminate other possible factors that might account for this phenomenon. In any case, it is highly questionable whether evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in question.
Second, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is consistent with the statement that the wine store sold more French than Italian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa when Italian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this method. For example, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of French wine were sold and three bottles of Italian whereas the reverse was the case when Italian music was played, and that in both instances only 10 bottles were sold.
In conclusion, the managers recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales of an item are influenced by the type of music played. Additionally, the manager would have to provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music.
上一篇: GMAT考试写作例文224篇连载(六九)
为了保密也是拼!权游演员将不会看到剧本内容
被阿富汗塔利班扣押的西方夫妇抵达加拿大
国际英语资讯:White House elaborates on Trumps Asia visit itinerary
国际英语资讯:Hate crimes soar in England, Wales in past year with exacerbation around Brexit referendum
体坛英语资讯:Dalic gets at least two more matches at Croatian bench
国内英语资讯:China announces new gravitational wave observation
国际英语资讯:News Analysis: Defeating IS in Syrias Raqqa deals big blow to terrorism
调查发现 平板电脑成英国小学生开学标配
美文赏析:不要小看一个身材好的人
国内英语资讯:Trial operation of Beijings maglev line to start
川普出访亚洲期间或考虑前往朝鲜半岛非军事区
国内英语资讯:France to hold innovation-themed activities at 2nd CIIE
梅根辞演《金装律师》,只为履行王室义务当王妃?!
The Beautiful Moment 美丽的瞬间
2017年12月英语四级作文范文:关于十一长假
研究:剖腹产孩子更易长胖 原来月半是因为输在起跑线上
国内英语资讯:China, Ireland vow to keep strong growing momentum of trade
迷茫的你可能需要一份英语四六级备考攻略
党的十八大以来大国外交谱写新篇章
Being Beautiful All the Time 从小美到大
去泰国海滩千万不要吸烟啦!
国际英语资讯:Chinese bike-sharing company Mobike enters ROK market
国际英语资讯:UN envoy brokers dialogue between Iraqi protesters, govt
体坛英语资讯:Japan defeats China 71-68 to win FIBA Womens Asia Cup
麦当劳设手机寄存柜 “低头族”却表示...
国内英语资讯:China urges U.S., Britain to stop distorting facts on Xinjiang-related issues
2017年12月英语四级作文模板:团购
体坛英语资讯:First International traditional martial arts championships kick off in Lithuania
Listen to English Songs 听英文歌
The Unsupported News 未经核实的资讯