GMAT考试写作指导:Argument范文二三-查字典英语网
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GMAT考试写作指导:Argument范文二三

发布时间:2016-03-02  编辑:查字典英语网小编

  83. This editorial asserts that West Cambria should not change its highway speed

  limits because such changes adversely affect driver alertness and are therefore

  dangerous. To support this claim, the editorial cites statistics indicating that whenever

  East Cambria changed its speed limits, an average of 3 percent more automobile

  accidents occurred during the week after the change than during the week preceding it,

  even when the speed limit was lowered. As it stands, this argument suffers from three

  critical flaws.

  First, it is unlikely that the brief one-week periods under comparison are

  representative of longer time periods. A difference of only 3 percent during one

  particular week can easily be accounted for by other factors, such as heavy holiday

  traffic or bad weather, or by problems with reporting or sampling. Had the editorial

  indicated that several speed-limit changes in East Cambria contributed to the statistic,

  the argument would be more convincing; but for all we know, the statistic is based on

  only one such change. In any event, a one-week period is too brief to be representative

  because it is likely that accidents will occur more frequently immediately following the

  change, while people adjust to the new limit, than over the longer term when drivers

  have become accustomed to the change.

  Secondly, the editorial fails to acknowledge possible differences in the types of

  accidents occurring before and after the change. It is possible that the accidents during

  the week before the change all involved fatalities, while those during the week after the

  change were minor fender-benders. If so, even though 3 percent more accidents

  occurred after the change, the authors argument that changing the speed limit increases

  danger for drivers would be seriously weakened.

  Thirdly, the editorial fails to take into account possible differences between East

  and West Cambria that are relevant to how drivers react to speed-limit changes. Factors

  such as the condition of roads, average age and typical driving habits of residents, and

  weather patterns, would probably affect how well or how quickly drivers adapt to

  speed-limit changes. Thus, changing speed limits in East Cambria might be more

  dangerous than changing them in West Cambria.

  In conclusion, the statistical evidence cited to support the argument is

  insignificant and probably unrepresentative. To better evaluate the argument, we need to

  know how many speed-limit changes contributed to the statistic and when the speed-

  limit changes were made. Finally, to strengthen the argument the author should show

  that East and West Cambria would be similarly affected by speed-limit changes.

  

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