46. The following appeared in a memorandum from the directors of a security and safety consulting service.
Our research indicates that over the past six years no incidents of employee theft have been reported within ten of the companies that have been our clients. In analyzing the security practices of these ten companies, we have further learned that each of them requires its employees to wear photo identification badges while at work. In the future, therefore, we should recommend the use of such identification badges to all of our clients.
安全保险服务经理的备忘录：
我们的研究指出，过去的6年中作为我们客户的10家公司没有被报道出有任何事故或员工盗窃行为。分析这10家公司的安全经验，我们了解到他们每家公司都要求员工工作时佩戴有照片的身份证章。因此，未来我们将把这种身份证章推荐给我们所有的顾客。
1. 没有报道出来不一定代表没有，可能是为了公司声誉reputation fame prestige没有说也可能是因为没有发现
2. 一定是佩带了有照片的身份证起了作用吗?这个很难说。两者只是碰巧同时发生，没有必然的因果联系。
3. 不是所有公司的员工偷盗问题都是很严重的。例如服务产品提供的公司。
1. 不一定没有reported就是没发生。可能是公司出于reputation的考虑，隐瞒conceal了偷窃。
2. 没有因果关系，胸牌不一定是原因。可能是管理的比较好，员工更加cautious等等。
3. 不一定其他的公司也适用一样的政策。很可能其他的公司不适合使用胸牌――比如服务业company who provide service rather than product，顾客比较多，并不好管理。
In this argument the directors of a security-and safety-consulting service conclude that the use of photo identification badges should be recommended to all of their clients as a means to prevent employee theft. Their conclusion is based on a study revealing that ten of their previous clients who use photo identification badges have had no incidents of employee theft over the past six-year period. The directors recommendation is problematic in several respects.
In the first place, the directors argument is based on the assumption that the reason for the lack of employee theft in the ten companies was the fact that their employees wear photo identification badges. However, the evidence revealed in their research establishes only a positive correlation between the lack of theft and the requirement to wear badges; it does not establish a causal connection between them. Other factors, such as the use of surveillance cameras or spot checks of employees briefcases and purses could be responsible for lack of employee theft within the ten companies analyzed.
In the second place, the directors assume that employee theft is a problem that is common among their clients and about which their clients are equally concerned. However, for some of their clients this might not be a problem at all. For example, companies that sell services are much less likely to be concerned about employee theft than those who sell products. Moreover, those that sell small products would be more concerned about theft than those that sell large products. Consequently, even if wearing badges reduces employee theft, it might not be necessary for all of the firms clients to follow this practice.
In conclusion, the directors recommendation is not well supported. To strengthen the conclusion they must establish a causal relation between the wearing of identification badges and the absence of employee theft. They also must establish that the firms clients are sufficiently similar to all profit from this practice.
52. The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper.
The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City.
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
The construction of last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City has done little for the residents of the community. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage. In addition, because the malls owner lives in nearby Elm City, the profits derived from sales at the mall are not being returned to the community. These problems, coupled with the increase in trash and litter in nearby Oak City park, demonstrate that Oak City did not use good judgment in allowing the construction of the mall in the first place.
Elm城的报纸上的社论：
去年在橡树城市中心修建购物中心是个错误。由于中心开业，大量的本地企业倒闭了。而且市中心受到严重缺乏停车位的困扰。在附近的橡树城公园拘捕的罪犯和流浪汉也增加了。榆树城应该注意橡树城购物中心的例子并防止在榆树城建立购物中心。
1. 作者所给出的所有问题和商场的建设都是时间上的前后关系而没有给出证据显示他们的因果关系
2. 作者只给出了不好的结果而没有给出好的影响很可能权衡利弊之后被选择的是要开这个商场
3. 这个商场的建立不应该也不能由此就否定以后所有的商场的建立
1， To begin with, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the shopping malls opening and the closing of local businesses.
2， Moreover, the authors conclusion is also based on the assumption that the shopping mall has caused the increase in crime and vagrancy.
3， Finally, even if the shopping mall did cause the closing of local business and the increasing crime and vagrancy in Oak City, the authors prediction that Elm City will suffer from the same fate as Oak City is still open to doubt.
In this editorial the author rebukes Oak City for allowing the construction of a new downtown shopping mall. Citing a number of problems that have occurred since the building of the mail, the author concludes that the residents of Oak City have not benefited from the mail and that Oak City exercised poor judgment in allowing the mail to be built. Among the problems cited by the author are the closure of local businesses, lack of parking in the downtown area, and increased trash and litter in a city park near the mall. Moreover, the author argues that profits derived from sales are not benefiting Oak City because the owner of the mall lives in another city. The authors argument is problematic in several respects.
In the first place, the author assumes that addition of the new mall is the cause of the various problems cited. The only evidence offered to support this claim is that the construction of the mall occurred before these problems manifested themselves. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the claim in question. A chronological relationship is only one of the indicators of a causal relationship between two events.
In the second place, the author has focused only on negative effects the mall has had on the city. A more detailed analysis of the situation might reveal that the positive benefits for the city far outweigh the problems on which the author focuses. For example, new jobs might have been created for the residents of Oak City, and tax revenues might have been increased for the city. Lacking a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the mail on Oak City, it is presumptuous on the part of the author to conclude that Oak Citys decision to allow the mall to be built was incorrect.
In conclusion, the authors argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to demonstrate that the construction of the mall caused the various problems mentioned. The author would also have to show that the negative effects of the project outweighed the positive effects.
54. The following appeared in an Excelsior Company memorandum.
The Excelsior Company plans to introduce its own brand of coffee. Since coffee is an expensive food item, and since there are already many established brands of coffee, the best way to gain customers for the Excelsior brand is to do what Superior, the leading coffee company, did when it introduced the newest brand in its line of coffees: conduct a temporary sales promotion that offers free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons for the new brand.
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
精工公司的备忘录：
精工公司计划引入它自己的咖啡品牌。因为咖啡是一种昂贵的食品，而且已经有很多知名的咖啡品牌了，所以精工公司获得顾客的最好方法是做最主要的咖啡公司――高手公司在其系列产品中加入它的最新品牌的时候所作的事情：通过派发免费样品，降价和优惠卷制造新品牌的暂时的销售高潮。
1. 别的公司的经验是否可以被套用在该公司身上尚待考证
2. 该公司是否承担的起诸如发送免费样品降价等促销策略
3. 那个公司采取上述措施的时候是否获得了成功并没有证据论证
1， 没有证据证明SUPERIOR的策略成功了。
2， 就算成功了，也不一定会适合EC。因为那个公司可能有很强的实力，创造出high quality coffee，所以经过促销后很可能会win large amount of customers。但是EC不一定能创造出这样好的咖啡。
3， 就算是创造出了好咖啡，也不一定有实力实行这样的策略。很可能销售的增加不能off set那些cost.
This company memorandum recommends that Excelsior conduct a temporary sales promotion for its new brand of coffee that includes offering free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons. This recommendation is based on the fact that Superior, the leading coffee company, used just such a promotion to introduce the newest brand in its line of coffees. This argument is unconvincing because it relies on three questionable assumptions.
First of all, the argument rests on the assumption that a promotional strategy that works for one company will work for another. However, Excelsior and Superior may not be sufficiently similar to warrant this assumption. Promotional techniques that work for a leader with established name recognition for its brand of coffees may be ineffective for a company with no similar name recognition new to the brand coffee market. Accordingly, Excelsior might be better advised to employ some other strategy, such as a media advertising plan, to first attain broad name recognition.
The argument also depends on the assumption that Excelsior can afford a promotional plan similar to Superiors. However, free samples, price reductions, and discounts all reduce profits and may actually result in temporary losses. While a leading company with other profitable products in the same line can absorb a temporary loss, for a fledgling competitor this strategy might be very risky and may even result in business failure.
Finally, the argument relies on the assumption that Superiors promotional campaign for its newest coffee was successful. However, the memo provides no evidence that this was the case. It is possible that the promotion was entirely ineffective, and that Superior remains the leader in its field despite this small failure. If so, Excelsior may be ill-advised to follow Superiors promotional strategy.
In conclusion, the two companies are too dissimilar to justify the recommendation that Excelsior model its promotional strategy on Superiors. To strengthen the argument, the author of the memo must establish that Excelsior has sufficient operating capital to launch the recommended sales campaign, and that this strategy would be more effective than another strategy, such as using extensive media advertising.
55. The following appeared in an Excelsior Company memorandum.
The Excelsior Company plans to introduce its own brand of coffee. Since coffee is an expensive food item, and since there are already many established brands of coffee, the best way to gain customers for the Excelsior brand is to do what Superior, the leading coffee company, did when it introduced the newest brand in its line of coffees: conduct a temporary sales promotion that offers free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons for the new brand.
This company memorandum recommends that Excelsior conduct a temporary sales promotion for its new brand of coffee that includes offering free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons. This recommendation is based on the fact that Superior, the leading coffee company, used just such a promotion to introduce the newest brand in its line of coffees. This argument is unconvincing because it relies on three questionable assumptions.
First of all, the argument rests on the assumption that a promotional strategy that works for one company will work for another. However, Excelsior and Superior may not be sufficiently similar to warrant this assumption. Promotional techniques that work for a leader with established name recognition for its brand of coffees may be ineffective for a company with no similar name recognition new to the brand coffee market. Accordingly, Excelsior might be better advised to employ some other strategy, such as a media advertising plan, to first attain broad name recognition.
The argument also depends on the assumption that Excelsior can afford a promotional plan similar to Superiors. However, free samples, price reductions, and discounts all reduce profits and may actually result in temporary losses. While a leading company with other profitable products in the same line can absorb a temporary loss, for a fledgling competitor this strategy might be very risky and may even result in business failure.
Finally, the argument relies on the assumption that Superiors promotional campaign for its newest coffee was successful. However, the memo provides no evidence that this was the case. It is possible that the promotion was entirely ineffective, and that Superior remains the leader in its field despite this small failure. If so, Excelsior may be ill-advised to follow Superiors promotional strategy.
In conclusion, the two companies are too dissimilar to justify the recommendation that Excelsior model its promotional strategy on Superiors. To strengthen the argument, the author of the memo must establish that Excelsior has sufficient operating capital to launch the recommended sales campaign, and that this strategy would be more effective than another strategy, such as using extensive media advertising.
61. The following appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the directors of the Beta Company.
The Alpha Company has just reduced its workforce by laying off fifteen percent of its employees in all divisions and at all levels, and it is encouraging early retirement for other employees. As you know, the Beta Company manufactures some products similar to Alphas, but our profits have fallen over the last few years. To improve Betas competitive position, we should try to hire a significant number of Alphas former workers, since these experienced workers can provide valuable information about Alphas successful methods, will require little training, and will be particularly motivated to compete against Alpha.
公司的一个经理人的一份建议书：
公司通过在所有部门和所有层次裁减了15%的员工减少了工作人员，它还鼓励其他员工提前退休。如你所知，公司生产部分和公司类似的产品，但我们的利润在过去几年内下降了。为了提高的竞争力，我们应该试着雇用大量的的前雇员，因为这些有经验的工人将提供关于成功方法的有用信息，而且基本不需要培训，并将更有动力与竞争。
1. According to the common sense the workers who are laid off are always the least effective and well-experienced.
2. Whether the Alpha Company is successful or not is still open to doubt.
3. The recruitment will bring benefit to the company and cost at the same time. No conclusion can be given until the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
4. The products the two companies manufacture are just similar. The skills the Alpha companys workers own will not be applicable to the Beta company.
1. A公司的雇员是否能提供有用信息还不知道。因为被说服退休的，很可能是效率低下的，从事非核心的工作。
2. 没有证据证明A公司是否利润上升，有可能也是下降，甚至下降的更快。所以A的雇员即使提供信息也未必有用。
3. A与B是否有足够相似，很可能差很远。只有一些相似产品，不代表所有，而且很可能并不是这些产品导致的利润下降。
4. 很可能得到的利润不能补偿多雇佣的人员的cost。
A director of Beta Company suggests that Beta can improve its competitive position by hiring a significant number of former Alpha Company employees who have recently retired or been laid off. The directors reasoning is that because Alpha manufactures some products similar to Betas, former Alpha employees would be experienced and need little training, could provide valuable information about Alphas successful methods, and would be particularly motivated to compete against Alpha. The directors argument is problematic in several respects.
First of all, the argument presupposes that Alphas methods are successful. This is not necessarily the case. To the contrary, the fact that Alpha has laid off 15 percent of its employees in every division and at every level suggests that Alphas methods may have been unsuccessful and that downsizing was necessary for the company to minimize financial losses.
Secondly, the director assumes that the former Alpha employees hired by Beta will be well-trained and valuable. During a typical lay-off, however, the best and most experienced employees are typically the last to be laid off. By following the directors advice, Beta would probably be hiring Alphas least efficient and least experienced employees―that is, those who would be least valuable to Beta.
Thirdly, the author assumes that Alpha and Beta are sufficiently similar so that former Alpha employees could provide special value for Beta. However, we are informed only that Beta manufactures some products similar to Alphas. It is possible that former Alpha employees have experience with only a small segment of Betas product line, and thus have little inside information of any value to Beta.
Finally, the claim that former Alpha employees would be motivated to compete against Alpha is partially unwarranted. While many of those who were laid off may be so motivated, those who retired early from Alpha probably departed on good terms with Alpha, and would in any event be unmotivated to reenter the work force.
In conclusion, the argument fails to provide key facts needed to assess it. To better evaluate the directors suggestion, we would need more information about why Alpha reduced its work force, what type of workers left Alpha and under what circumstances, and how similar Alphas range of products is to Betas.
62. The following appeared in the letters-to-the-editor section of a local newspaper.
Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently sells out, according to the owner of Skyview Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in our towns residents, we should, therefore, equip our new community fitness center with such machines.
本地报纸上给编者的信板块：
一份叫Muscle Monthly的健康杂志规律性地刊登使用最好的训练器械的健美运动员的照片。据skyview报摊的摊主说它经常卖完。为了提高我镇居民的健康水平，我们应该给我们的新健身中心装备这样的器械。
1. The bodybuilders may just pretend to be using the state-of-the-art exercise machines while, in fact, their excellent body conditions are due to the use of other types of equipment. And, they just do so for the advertisement purpose.
2. The circulation is just one of the indicators of the popularity of the magazine. What is more, I can find no direct relationship between the popularity of the magazine and the authors suggestion that we should equip the community with the state-of-the-art excercise machine.
3. The machines for body building will not necessarily have the same effect on fitness.
1， 如果杂志卖光得快不一定是因为这个器材好，很可能是价钱便宜，和其他的内容。
2， 那些人很可能并不真正用这些机器，而只是摆出造型。
3， 如果是为了body-building的机器很可能不能fitness。比如，cardiovascular fitness。
In this argument the author concludes that the new community fitness center should be equipped with the state-of-the-art exercise machines featured in Muscle Monthly magazine. In support of this recommendation two reasons are offered: Muscle Monthly contains pictures of bodybuilders using such machines, and Muscle Monthly is a popular magazine, as evidenced by the fact that it frequently sells out at the local newsstand. This argument is questionable on two counts.
First, a major implication of the argument is that the bodybuilders pictured using the machines in Muscle Monthly magazine reached their state of fitness as a result of using these machines. The only evidence offered to support this contention, however, is the pictures in the magazine. It is possible that the bodybuilders pictured use different equipment for their workouts and are merely posing with the machines for advertising purposes.
Second, the author assumes that machines that are suitable for bodybuilding will also be suitable to help maximize the fitness levels of the towns residents. This assumption is highly questionable. Machines designed to increase muscle development are significantly different from those designed to increase cardiovascular fitness. Consequently, it is unlikely that the machines pictured in the magazine will be of much use to help maximize the fitness levels of the towns residents.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that the bodybuilders pictured using the exercise machines actually used the machines to reach their level of muscle development. Additionally, the author would have to show that the machines were suitable for increasing the fitness levels of the persons using them.
63. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
The Cumquat Caf made a mistake in moving to a new location. After one year at the new spot, it is doing about the same volume of business as before, but the owners of the RoboWrench plumbing supply wholesale outlet that took over its old location are apparently doing better: RoboWrench is planning to open a store in a neighboring city.
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
地方报纸的商业版：
Cumquat咖啡店搬到新地址是个错误。到新址的一年以后，它的营业额和以前基本一样。但在它的原址开业的提供铅管批发出口的Robo Wrench的店主显然做的更好。Robo Wrench正计划在临近城市开一家店。
1. False analogy
2. Other factors other than location that may contribute to the faliure of the Cumquat Cafe should be considered and ruled out.
3. Likewise, there may be some other factors that will explain the success of the success of the RoboWrench plumbing.
4. One years poor performance is too wake an evidence to conclude that the Cafe has made a mistake to relocate.
According to this newspaper article, the Cumquat Cafe made a mistake by relocating one year ago. The author supports this claim by pointing out that Cumquat is doing about the same volume of business as before it moved, while RoboWrench plumbing supply outlet, which took over Cumquats old location, is apparently doing better because its owners plan to open a new outlet in a nearby city. This argument suffers from several critical flaws.
To begin with, the two businesses are too dissimilar for meaningful comparison. Cumquats old location may simply have been better suited to hardware, plumbing, and home improvement businesses than to cafes and restaurants. The articles claim that Cumquat made a mistake in moving fails to take this possibility into account.
Secondly, the articles claim that RoboWrench is doing better since it took over Cumquats old location is too vague to be meaningful. The author fails to provide a second term of this comparison. We are not informed whether RoboWrench is doing better than before it moved, better than other plumbing stores, or better than Cumquat. This uninformative comparison is worthless as evidence from which to judge the wisdom of Cumquats decision to relocate.
Thirdly, the claim that RoboWrench is doing better is unwarranted by the evidence. The mere fact that RoboWrench plans to open a new store in a nearby city does not by itself establish that business is good. It is possible that the purpose of this plan is to compensate for lackluster business at the current location. Or perhaps the RoboWrench owners are simply exercising poor business judgment.
Finally, the claim that Cumquat made a mistake in moving may be too hasty, since the conclusion is based on only one years business at the new location. Moreover, given the time it ordinarily takes for a business to develop a new customer base in a new location, the fact that Cumquats volume of business is about the same as before it moved tends to show that the move was a good decision, not a mistake.
In conclusion, the claim that Cumquats move was a mistake is ill-founded, since it is based on both poor and incomplete comparisons as well as on a premature conclusion. To better assess the argument, we need to know what the author is comparing RoboWrenchs performance to; we also need more information about the extent of RoboWrenchs success at this location and why its owners are opening a new store.
下一篇： GMAT写作问题：警惕犯下“七宗罪”