World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict
Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting peak oil. Peak oil is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point，and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2.It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3.A related concept is that4 of Peak Oil. The term Peak Oil indicates the moment in which world wide production will peak，afterwards to start on irreversible decline.
However，recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes，politics，and other factors，the scientists say.
词汇：
crude oil原油
curve n.曲线
1.ACSEnergyFuels：ACS是American Chemical Society的缩写。该学会成立于1876年，现已成为世界最大的科技协会。多年来，ACS一直致力于为全球化学研究机构、企业及个人提供高品质的文献资讯及服务。ACS出版的期刊有34种，这些期刊在化学领域中是被引用次数最多的化学期刊，EnergyFuels即是其中一本。
3.a bell shaped curve：钟形曲线
5.account for：说明，解释
7.oil reserves：石油储量。通常使用复数形式reserves。
A.It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014.
C.It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model.
5.Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model ?
B.Kuwaiti scientists.
D.Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries.