When a magazine for high-school students asked its readers what life would be like in twenty years, they said: Machines would be run by solar power. Buildings would rotate so they could follow the sun to take maximum advantage of its light and heat Walls would radiate light and change color with the push of a button. Food would be replaced by pills. School would be taught by electrical impulse while we sleep. Cars would have radar. Does this sound like the year 2000? Actually, the article was written in 1958 and the question was, what will life be like in 1978?
The future is much too important to simply guess about, the way the high school students did, so experts are regularly asked to predict accurately. By carefully studying the present, skilled businessmen, scientists, and politicians are supposedly able to figure out in advance what will happen. But can they? One expert on cities wrote: Cities of the future would not be crowded, but would have space for farms and fields. People would travel to work in airbuses, large all-weather helicopters carrying up to 200 passengers. When a person left the airbus station he could drive a coin-operated car equipped with radar. The radar equipment of cars would make traffic accidents almost unheard of. Does that sound familiar? If the expert had been accurate it would, because he was writing in 1957. His subject was The city of 1982.
If the professionals sometimes sound like high-school students, its probably because future study is still a new field. But economic forecasting, or predicting what the economy will do, has been around for a long time. It should be accurate, and generally it is. But there have been some big market in the field, too. In early 1929, most forecasters saw an excellent future for the stock market. In October of that year, the stock market had its worst losses ever, ruining thousands of investors who had put their faith in financial foreseers.
One forecaster knew that predictions about the future would always be subject to significant error. In 1957, H.J.Rand of the Rad corporation was asked about the year 2000, Only one thing is certain, he answered. Children born today will have reached the age of 43.
1. The high-school students answers to What would life be like in 1978? sound
A) accurate.
B) imaginative.
C) correct.
D) foolish.
2. According to the writer, forecasting is fairly accurate in
A) politics.
B) science.
C) sociology.
D) economy.
3. Which of the following statements is not compatible with the writers comment on future study?
A) Predictions should be accurate
B) Professional sometimes sound like high-school students
C) There have been some big mistakes in the field of economic forecasting.
D) Predictions about future would always be subject to significant errors.
4. The passage Looking to the Future was most probably written
A) in 1982
B) in 1958
C) after 1958
D) in 1957
5. H.J.Rands prediction about the year 2000 shows that
A) it is easy to figure out in advance what will happen
B) it is difficult to figure out in advance what will happen
C) only professionals can figure out in advance what will happen
D) very few professionals figure out in advance what will happen
答案: BDACB
国内英语资讯:Rail travel demand remains robust on Lunar New Years eve
国际英语资讯:Yemeni warring factions meet over Hodeidah withdrawal for 2nd day
国内英语资讯:Across China: Migrant workers find easier way home at Spring Festival
今年春节,要这样发表情包!
国内英语资讯:Feature: Chinas ambassador delivers Spring Festival wishes to Iraqi visa applicants in Bag
国际英语资讯:Nigeria records 41,000 cancer-related deaths in 2018: WHO
看了这么多年春晚,这些关于春晚的冷知识你知道吗?
国内英语资讯:Chinas winter tourism attracts nearly 200 mln tourists in 2017-2018 season
国际英语资讯:Yemen Houthis claim launch of fresh bomb-laden drone attack on Saudi Jizan airport
国内英语资讯:Senior military official calls for support of strengthening and revitalizing armed forces
国际英语资讯:U.S. President Trump, DPRK leader Kim meet in Panmunjom, pledge to restart talks
体坛英语资讯:Thailand wins womens doubles titles at Asian Sepak Takraw Championship
国际英语资讯:Air quality in Cambodia not affected by smog in neighboring Thailand
国内英语资讯:China firmly opposes mercenary activities in Africa, says Chinese envoy
国内英语资讯:Spotlight: Qatari emirs visit to China shows positive signals
国际英语资讯:Trump says to nominate David Bernhardt as U.S. secretary of interior
体坛英语资讯:Iran beat Canada 3-0 in FIVB competition
国际英语资讯:Pakistan to form new agency to build tourist-friendly country
体坛英语资讯:Iraq cruise into knockout stage of AFC Asian Cup
国际英语资讯:No delays in Russian S-400 missiles delivery to Turkey: Erdogan
每日阅读的6大好处
体坛英语资讯:AFC Asian Cup: Qatar, Japan, Uzbekistan win their openers
体坛英语资讯:Analysis: Why Bayern is going beyond its borders for Hudson-Odoi
体坛英语资讯:Real Madrid Cup win lifts pressure on Solari
体坛英语资讯:S. African striker Ndlovu vows to help Zhejiang Greentown promote to Chinese Super League
体坛英语资讯:Almoez Ali scores 4 goals to help Qatar hammer DPR Korea 6-0
国内英语资讯:Legislatures role in enforcing water pollution control law stressed
国际英语资讯:Spotlight: Strike on Turkish military post in Idlib conveys Moscows message: analysts
体坛英语资讯:Messi scores 400th league goal to help Barca reach halfway point
体坛英语资讯:Gabriel Barbosa joins Flamengo on loan